New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings prediction: Kuemper's slump faces a steady Sorokin as Kings host sliding Islanders
Two teams that struggle to score turn this one over to the crease, where the Islanders hold the clearer edge.
| Line | Los Angeles Kings -125 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect a tight game between offenses ranked 22nd and 24th in scoring, decided by goaltending and penalties.
- Kuemper (.878) against Sorokin (.913) is the clearest gap between these teams, though neither probable starter is confirmed.
- The Kings are -125 favorites and the total climbed to 6.0 from 5.5.
A crease built for trouble
Los Angeles is 2-6-0 at Crypto.com Arena. The Islanders arrive on a four-game skid. One team's bad stretch ends tonight, and the goalies will likely decide whose.
Darcy Kuemper is the Kings' probable starter after sitting out Tuesday's loss to Nashville, and he has been the weak spot on a struggling team. He carries an .878 save percentage and a 3.53 goals-against average. Anton Forsberg, who started Tuesday, has been sharper at .907, which makes Kuemper's leash worth watching.
Ilya Sorokin is expected to start for New York after making 37 saves in Monday's shootout loss in San Jose. His .913 mark anchors a team save percentage that ranks 5th of 32. The Kings rank 25th. Neither club had confirmed its goalie by Thursday.
Penalties cut both ways
The special-teams matchup pits weakness against weakness. The Kings kill penalties at 66.0% (the share of opponent power plays they survive without allowing a goal), 29th in the league. The Islanders convert only 15.4% of their power plays, 28th.
The tiebreaker is discipline. New York takes penalties as often as almost anyone, and Los Angeles draws them at a healthy clip. Yet the Islanders' penalty kill sits at 86.7%, 4th in the league, so the Kings' chances with the extra man may not pay off as often as the volume suggests.
Shots versus saves
Los Angeles controls more of the play. The Kings own 50.0% of the shots in their games, while the Islanders sit at 47.2%, 28th in the league. New York gets outshot and survives on goaltending and faceoffs.
That formula breaks when the Islanders fall behind early, and the Kings have their own early problem: they allowed goals in the opening minutes of each of their last two games, both losses. Artemi Panarin, with 18 points, is the Kings' best bet to turn the shot edge into goals. For New York, Victor Eklund carries a three-game goal streak into Los Angeles.
Who's in, who's close
Mathew Barzal has not played this season because of left knee inflammation. Coach Peter DeBoer said Barzal would be evaluated Thursday, and earlier in the week he called a return this week a "potential" but added, "That doesn't mean it's a guarantee." Matias Maccelli is day-to-day and traveling with the team. Ryan Pulock and Alexander Romanov remain out on the blue line.
For Los Angeles, Kevin Fiala is expected back from lower-leg surgery either tonight or Saturday against Calgary. Drew Doughty and Erik Gustafsson were both listed as day-to-day on Wednesday, and Gustafsson missed Monday's practice and Tuesday's morning skate.
What the market says
The Kings are -125 on the moneyline, with the Islanders at +105, and Los Angeles is the puck-line favorite at -1.5. The total has moved up to 6.0 from the 5.5 our feed first recorded.
History leans Los Angeles: the Kings won both meetings last season and took the October 22 game on Long Island 3-2, after the Islanders erased an early deficit. This is the final regular-season meeting between them.
New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings line movement and odds
| Book | Islanders ML | Kings ML | Islanders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-225) | o6 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-275) | o5.5 (-118) |
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-238) | o5.5 (-130) |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-250) | o5.5 (-130) |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-240) | o5.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | +104 | -125 | +1.5 (-250) | o5.5 (-140) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-250) | o5.5 (-130) |
| Caesars | +108 | -127 | +1.5 (-235) | o6 (-102) |
Where the money is on New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings
On the Kalshi moneyline: New York Islanders: 54% of bets, 85% of the money; Los Angeles Kings: 46% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Los Angeles Kings -1.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; New York Islanders +1.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 8.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 8.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings stats (this season)
| Stat | New York Islanders | Los Angeles Kings |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-6-4 | 5-9-2 |
| Goals per game | 2.82 (22nd of 32) | 2.81 (24th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.94 (10th of 32) | 3.44 (23rd of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | -0.12 (20th of 32) | -0.62 (25th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 25.9 (23rd of 32) | 28.1 (11th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 29.0 (25th of 32) | 28.1 (20th of 32) |
| Shot share | 47.2% (28th of 32) | 50.0% (12th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 10.9% (20th of 32) | 10.0% (26th of 32) |
| Team save % | 89.9% (5th of 32) | 87.8% (25th of 32) |
| Power play % | 15.4% (28th of 32) | 21.8% (16th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 86.7% (4th of 32) | 66.0% (29th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 56.3% (2nd of 32) | 51.2% (11th of 32) |
Key players
- Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders): His .913 save percentage and 2.57 GAA this season are the backbone of a team that ranks 5th in save percentage.
- Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders): He leads the Islanders with 17 points this season while logging 27.0 minutes a night.
- Bo Horvat (New York Islanders): His 7 goals lead the team this season, and he matches Schaefer's 17 points.
- Victor Eklund (New York Islanders): He has 6 goals on 26 shots this season and brings a three-game goal streak to Los Angeles.
- Darcy Kuemper (Los Angeles Kings): His .878 save percentage and 3.53 GAA this season are the biggest question mark for the Kings.
- Artemi Panarin (Los Angeles Kings): He leads Los Angeles with 18 points and 8 goals this season.
- Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles Kings): He has 13 points and 50 shots in 15 games this season.
- Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings): He is a plus-7 this season, the team's best mark among key players, but was listed as day-to-day Wednesday.
Numbers that matter
| Kuemper save percentage | .878 | The Kings' probable starter has been their weakest link this season. |
|---|---|---|
| Kings penalty kill | 66.0% | Ranks 29th, a soft spot even for an Islanders power play that ranks 28th. |
| Islanders penalty kill | 86.7% | Ranks 4th and blunts the extra chances New York's penalties hand the Kings. |
| Kings home record | 2-6-0 | Los Angeles has not turned home ice into an edge this season. |
| Total | 6.0 | Up from 5.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings: quick answers
What is the over/under for New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings?
The total is 6 goals.
When is New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Where is New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings played?
crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles.
Has the line moved for New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings?
No: New York Islanders has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New York Islanders: 54% of bets, 85% of the money; Los Angeles Kings: 46% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Los Angeles Kings -1.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; New York Islanders +1.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 8.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 8.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.