Youngstown State vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State's rebuilt roster debuts against Youngstown State's three-point habit

A roster rebuilt around Mobley

Ohio State opens its third season under Jake Diebler with a roster that barely resembles last year's. Only 33.4% of last season's minutes return, and Bruce Thornton's departure removes the engine. He scored 19.9 points a game with an offensive rating of 139.1 (points produced per 100 possessions used).

John Mobley Jr. is the headliner now. He averaged 15.7 points and made 41.1% of his threes. Amare Bynum is the only other returning starter.

The newcomers arrive with big roles from elsewhere. Jimmie Williams scored 15.0 a game at Duquesne. Justin Pippen used 26.3% of California's possessions but shot 37.2% from the field. Curtis Givens III (Memphis) and Andrija Jelavic (Kentucky) add depth. That is a lot of ball-dominant guards to sort out in a season opener, and it makes last season's team ratings a weak guide to this group.

The Penguins live behind the arc

Youngstown State took 49.3% of its shots from three last season, the 19th-highest rate in Division I. It made 34.5% of them, a middle-of-the-pack number that makes this offense swing with its shooting nights.

Ohio State's perimeter defense was its best feature a year ago. Opponents shot 31.7% from three against the Buckeyes, 63rd nationally. If that holds with new personnel, Ethan Faulkner's team will need another way to score.

The caveat runs both directions. We can't measure how much of last season's Youngstown State roster returns. The roster lists Linus Holmstrom as a transfer from VMI, alongside names like Kelvin Amoako and Jermaine Coleman.

Where Ohio State bends inside

The other way is the paint. Youngstown State made 57.4% of its two-point shots last season, 32nd in the country.

That is exactly where Ohio State struggled. The Buckeyes allowed opponents to make 52.1% of their twos, 222nd nationally. Their block rate ranked 337th, so very little got turned away at the rim. Center Christoph Tilly is gone, and Ivan Njegovan, who played 11.4 minutes a game last season, is the returning big. If Youngstown State's threes aren't falling, its drives and post touches are the plan that can keep it within reach.

Possessions, pace and history

Youngstown State was loose with the ball, posting a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) of 17.9%, 262nd nationally. Ohio State rarely punished that kind of team: its steal rate ranked 355th last season.

The Buckeyes prefer a deliberate game, with a pace that ranked 286th. Fewer possessions tend to shrink a talent gap, though Ohio State's 77.9% free-throw shooting (18th) helps it close out games at the line.

The last meeting was lopsided: Ohio State won 81-47 in Columbus in November 2024. Last season's final adjusted ratings tell the same story, with the Buckeyes 27th in net efficiency and the Penguins 210th. The game streams on B1G+. The tip time is still to be announced, though some listings show 6:30 p.m.