Robert Morris vs UIC prediction: Robert Morris returns to UIC without the trio that won last time

A rematch with new faces

Last Nov. 26, Robert Morris beat UIC 88-74 at home, the Colonials' first win in a series the Flames had taken five times running. Andy Toole's team went on to finish 22-11 and was picked second in the Horizon League preseason poll, behind Wright State.

The team returning to Chicago looks different. Robert Morris brings back 55.3% of last season's minutes and only 44.7% of its points. The three leading scorers all left for high-major programs: guard Ryan Prather Jr. (15.9 points per game) to Iowa State, forward DeSean Goode (15.6) to Miami and forward Nikos Chitikoudis to Xavier. Goode was the most efficient of them, with a 69.4% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times).

What remains is a guard-heavy core. Darius Livingston, Albert Vargas, Ta'Zir Smith and Kaleb Brown all logged real minutes last season, but none of them carried a scoring load like the players who left. Because so much production walked out the door, last season's team numbers are a weak guide to this Robert Morris team.

Where UIC can take possessions

UIC's defense under Rob Ehsan was built on taking the ball away. Last season the Flames forced turnovers on 20.9% of opponent possessions, 21st nationally, and their steal rate ranked 38th.

That is a bad matchup for last season's Colonials. They gave the ball away on 18.8% of possessions, 303rd of 365. Vargas posted an offensive rating of 110.5 as a starter last season. Still, a backcourt taking on bigger roles without Prather against a defense that lives in passing lanes is the matchup most likely to decide this game.

UIC adds guard help of its own. Gabe Cupps arrives from Ohio State and grad guard Benny Gealer comes from Stanford, so the Flames have ball handlers to steady their own offense. UIC turned it over on 18.2% of possessions last season, which ranked 276th.

Threes against a defense that allows them

Robert Morris shot 37.5% from three last season, 25th nationally. UIC let opponents take a lot of threes: 46.0% of opponent shots came from deep, the 22nd-highest share in the country.

That opening suits Livingston, the most important returner. He made 39.4% of his threes on 155 attempts and carried a 22.9% usage rate, mostly in a reserve role. If UIC again concedes volume from deep, he gets the looks.

UIC's offense takes the opposite approach. The Flames hit just 32.1% from three (286th) and rarely shot them. They crashed the glass and lived off turnovers.

The glass and the pace

Both teams attacked the offensive boards last season. Robert Morris rebounded 38.2% of its misses (8th) and UIC 36.8% (22nd). UIC's defensive rebounding ranked only 244th, which once looked like an edge for the Colonials. But Goode and Chitikoudis did much of that work, and the returning core is all guards, so that edge may not carry over.

The tempo should be slow. Robert Morris ranked 339th in pace and UIC 312th, so expect long half-court possessions. Each turnover and each second-chance basket carries more weight in a game with fewer trips.

Homecoming and what to watch

UIC has billed Nov. 6 as its Homecoming game at Credit Union 1 Arena. The Flames are also coming off a loss to UNI in last season's Missouri Valley tournament final. They have an exhibition at Illinois on Oct. 28. No injury, illness or eligibility news had surfaced for either team as of Oct. 24.

- Robert Morris turnovers against UIC's ball pressure, especially early. - Livingston's three-point volume against a defense that conceded deep looks. - Who rebounds for Robert Morris now that its two starting forwards are gone. Cupps and Gealer fitting in.