Loyola Maryland vs Mount St. Mary's prediction: Rebuilt Mount St. Mary's opens Knott Arena against Loyola's three-point volume
The Mount kept little of last season's roster, so the Catholic Clash opener tests whether its interior defense comes back with it against a Loyola team built to fire from deep.
- Expect a grinding home opener: a three-heavy Loyola offense against a Mount defense that walled off the paint last season but lost most of its rotation.
- Loyola's perimeter volume against the Mount's new guards, led by Longwood transfer Redd Thompson Jr.
- No spread or total is posted yet. The number that bears most: the Mount's 22.5% turnover rate last season, 362nd of 365.
The Mount starts over
Mount St. Mary's opens its home slate on Friday, Nov. 6, with a roster that barely resembles last season's. Players on this year's team accounted for just 32.5% of the Mount's minutes and 25.8% of its points last season, so last year's team numbers are a loose guide at best.
The losses are real. Arlandus Keyes, who averaged 12.3 points per game, is gone, and Luke McEldon, who shot 64.5% from the field, left for Northwestern. Starters Xavier Lipscomb and Trey Deveaux are gone too.
Donny Lind, extended through the 2030-31 season, is rebuilding around transfers. Redd Thompson Jr. averaged 10.3 points at Longwood last season with an offensive rating of 111.5, and he made 88% of his free throws. Wilguens Exacte Jr. comes from Drake. The roster also lists Cade Orness with Gonzaga as a prior school. Abdou Khadre Kebe, who posted 7.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game last season, is the most productive returner.
Loyola lives beyond the arc
Loyola's identity last season was simple: shoot threes. The Greyhounds took 47.0% of their shots from deep, 32nd-most in Division I, though they made only 33.4% of them. That volume runs straight into what the Mount's defense conceded. Opponents launched threes against the Mount at the 29th-highest rate in the country last season. The Mount held opponents to 45.4% on two-pointers, 12th-best nationally, and ranked 27th in opponent effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes.
The question is whether that wall survives the roster turnover, especially without McEldon. Loyola could test it: its minutes-weighted height sits at 77.4 inches against the Mount's 76.2, and Josh Loeffler, in his third season, added transfers Mason Hagedorn, a 6'10" forward, and Abdullah Amzil, a 6'7" wing.
Loyola's own defense is the bigger worry for the visitors. Opponents shot 56.5% inside the arc against the Greyhounds last season, 347th of 365.
Possessions and the foul line
The Mount's offense ranked 343rd in efficiency last season (points per 100 possessions), and ball security was the main culprit. Its turnover rate of 22.5 per 100 possessions ranked 362nd of 365. Loyola is not built to punish that. The Greyhounds forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 296th.
Free throws could matter late. The Mount made just 67.1% from the line last season, 344th nationally. Thompson's stroke from the stripe is one of the clearest upgrades on the new roster.
The Catholic Clash returns
This is a rivalry with history, and the Mount has recently had the upper hand, winning 81-73 last December and seeking its fourth win in five meetings with Loyola. Loyola's lone win in the last three came at Knott Arena, 77-69 in December 2024.
The Mount is billing the night as a white-out with a T-shirt giveaway. Expectations for Loyola are modest: the Patriot League preseason poll gave the Greyhounds 26 points and slotted them near the bottom. Neither team has reported any injuries or availability issues.
What to watch
- How many threes Loyola gets up, and whether the Mount's new lineup still forces them out of the paint.
- The Mount's turnover count against a Loyola defense that rarely forced them last season.
- Thompson's usage. He carried a 24.7% usage rate at Longwood last season and could be the Mount's first option.
Key players
- Redd Thompson Jr. (Mount St. Mary's): Averaged 10.3 points last season at Longwood with an 88% free-throw mark.
- Abdou Khadre Kebe (Mount St. Mary's): The Mount's top returning producer at 7.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game last season.
- Mason So (Mount St. Mary's): Shot 35.5% from three last season in 18.2 minutes per game.
- Wilguens Exacte Jr. (Mount St. Mary's): Started 13 games at Drake last season, averaging 7.3 points and 4.5 rebounds.
Numbers that matter
| Mount returning minutes | 32.5% | Most of last season's rotation is gone, so the Mount's team stats from a year ago are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Loyola 3-point attempt rate (last season) | 47.0% | 32nd-most in Division I, a style aimed at a Mount defense that opponents attacked from deep. |
| Mount opponent 2-point % (last season) | 45.4% | 12th-best nationally; whether the rebuilt frontcourt holds that line shapes the game. |
| Mount turnover rate (last season) | 22.5% | 362nd of 365, though Loyola forced turnovers at a rate ranked only 296th. |
| Loyola opponent 2-point % (last season) | 56.5% | 347th of 365, an opening for the Mount inside if it can hold onto the ball. |
Loyola Maryland vs Mount St. Mary's: quick answers
When is Loyola Maryland vs Mount St. Mary's?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.