Cal State Northridge vs Kansas State prediction: Kansas State and CSUN bring two of last season's fastest tempos
Both teams ranked among the 10 fastest-paced teams in Division I last season, and CSUN's heavy roster overhaul leaves the opener in Manhattan wide open.
- Expect a fast game with plenty of possessions; Kansas State's home floor and stronger adjusted profile from last season give it the edge.
- Kansas State's 3-point shooting against a CSUN defense that let opponents fire away from deep at one of the highest rates in the country.
- No spread or total has been posted. Last season's adjusted net ratings, 7.2 for Kansas State and -1.3 for CSUN, are the best early baseline.
Two teams that love to run
There will be possessions to spare in Bramlage Coliseum. Last season Cal State Northridge averaged 74.9 possessions per 40 minutes, 4th of 365 Division I teams. Kansas State wasn't far behind at 72.8, 10th in the country.
The scoreboards showed it. The Matadors scored 81.4 points a game last season and the Wildcats scored 79.6. Neither defense slowed the game down: Kansas State allowed 81.8 a night, 347th nationally. These programs have met only twice before, and not since 1987, so there's no recent series history to go on. Last season's tempo is the clearest guide to how this game will look.
The 3-point question
CSUN's defense had one clear tendency last season. Opponents took 48.6% of their shots from deep against the Matadors, the 7th-highest rate in Division I. That is an open invitation for a team that can shoot.
Kansas State could shoot. The Wildcats made 36.4% of their threes last season, 43rd nationally, and posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 53.3, which ranked 105th. CSUN went the other way on offense. It took threes on just 33.8% of its shots and made only 32.2% of them. If the Wildcats' shooters carry over, the arc is where they can pull away.
Fighting for the glass
Rebounding was Kansas State's biggest weakness last season and CSUN's biggest strength. The Wildcats grabbed only 66.1% of available defensive rebounds, 331st in the country. The Matadors rebounded 33.3% of their own misses on offense, 101st, and cleaned up 73.7% of opponents' misses, 34th.
Second chances could keep CSUN close even if it shoots poorly. The Matadors may need them, because they converted just 66.7% of their free throws last season, 347th nationally. Kansas State rarely got to the line at all: its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 26.9 ranked 350th.
New faces, old numbers
Every number above comes with a caveat. CSUN coach Andy Newman signed nine players this offseason, seven of them Division I transfers, so last season's 20-14 Big West semifinal team won't look the same. Kansas State went 12-20 last season, yet its opponent-adjusted net efficiency of 7.2 (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for schedule) ranked 99th. That's well ahead of CSUN's -1.3, 182nd.
Big 12 coaches don't see a quick turnaround in Manhattan. Kansas State tied for 14th in the league's preseason poll with 34 points. There's no current injury news for either team, and the reported status of Kansas State's rotation is months old. Check availability closer to the opening tip.
Where the money is on Cal State Northridge vs Kansas State
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cal State Northridge: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Kansas State: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Numbers that matter
| CSUN pace last season | 74.9 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 4th-fastest in Division I, which points to a high-possession game. |
|---|---|---|
| CSUN opponent 3PA rate | 48.6% | Seventh-highest in the country last season, a matchup Kansas State's shooters can attack. |
| Kansas State 3-point % | 36.4% | Ranked 43rd last season, the Wildcats' best offensive weapon. |
| Kansas State defensive rebound % | 66.1% | Ranked 331st last season, a weakness against CSUN's offensive rebounding, which ranked 101st. |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 7.2 | Kansas State's final opponent-adjusted rating last season, 99th, compared with CSUN's 182nd. |
Cal State Northridge vs Kansas State: quick answers
When is Cal State Northridge vs Kansas State?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is the money on Cal State Northridge vs Kansas State?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cal State Northridge: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Kansas State: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.