Youngstown State vs Central Michigan prediction: Youngstown State's almost entirely new roster tests Central Michigan's rebuilt frontcourt
The Penguins bring back almost nothing from last season, so this one turns on whose newcomers find their footing first on a November night in Mount Pleasant.
- Two rebuilt teams picked low in their leagues; expect a ragged game shaped by which transfers settle in fastest.
- Youngstown State's new shooters, led by VMI transfer Linus Holmstrom, against a Chippewas interior that lost its shot-blocking center.
- No spread or total had posted in our feed as of Oct. 31; last season's final adjusted net ratings had Youngstown State 210th and Central Michigan 277th.
Youngstown State starts over
Youngstown State comes to McGuirk Arena about as close to a brand-new team as college basketball allows. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 5.2% of last season's minutes. Guard Jaiden Haynes is the lone returner, and third-year coach Ethan Faulkner filled out the roster with eight transfers and four true freshmen.
That turns last season's numbers into a historical note. Those Penguins lived behind the arc, taking 49.3% of their shots from three, 19th-most in Division I. The players who took those shots are gone. The incoming guards suggest the style could survive anyway: Holmstrom made 78 threes at VMI last season and hit 39.4% of them.
The only live look at this group came in an exhibition at Akron on Oct. 27, a 92-76 loss. The Penguins still shot nearly 50 percent and put four players in double figures, and they answered a 14-point Akron lead with a nine-point run.
Central Michigan keeps its engine
Central Michigan is rebuilding too, just less drastically. Its roster returns 39.7% of last season's minutes from a team that went 10-21. Second-year coach Andy Bronkema kept his lead guard and his most dependable forward.
Phat Phat Brooks averaged 11.0 points last season, though he made only 6 of 34 threes, so defenses can sag off him. Keenan Garner shot 53.5% from the floor. The pair sparked the final exhibition, an 88-44 win over North Park, with Garner scoring 15 and Brooks 14. Kansas City transfer Jayson Petty, who started every game there last season, adds another experienced guard.
Expectations are modest on both sides. Central Michigan was picked last in the MAC preseason poll, and Youngstown State ninth in the Horizon.
New size at the rim
The Chippewas' biggest question sits at the basket. Last season they blocked 11.9% of opponents' two-point attempts, 55th nationally, and center Nathan Claerbaut averaged 2.1 blocks a game. He is gone.
In his place come 7-2 senior Conrad Luczynski from Lenoir-Rhyne and 6-10 senior Brock Mendoza from Pima Community College. They inherit a defense that needs the help. Opponents made 54.2% of their twos against Central Michigan last season, which ranked 304th. Its defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) ranked 328th of 365. If the new size holds up, a Youngstown State team still learning its own sets could be pushed out to the perimeter.
Careless with the ball
Ball security was a problem for both programs last season. Central Michigan turned it over on 19.0% of its possessions, 314th in the country. Youngstown State's rate of 17.9% ranked 262nd.
The Chippewas also forced turnovers well, ranking 104th, which is one of the few defensive strengths they can build on. With both rosters reshaped, last season's habits are a loose guide. A new Penguins backcourt facing a home team that forced turnovers at a solid clip last season could swing a few possessions.
Key players
- Linus Holmstrom (Youngstown State): He started 29 games at VMI last season and averaged 11.4 points while hitting 39.4% from three.
- Jayden Tyler (Youngstown State): He made 47.5% of his threes at Wofford last season in 13.2 minutes a game.
- Jaiden Haynes (Youngstown State): The only holdover from last season, he averaged 4.8 points in 16.0 minutes.
- Phat Phat Brooks (Central Michigan): He averaged 11.0 points and 3.9 assists last season but shot 17.6% from three.
- Keenan Garner (Central Michigan): He shot 53.5% from the floor and grabbed 5.5 rebounds a game last season, then scored 15 in the final exhibition.
- Jayson Petty (Central Michigan): He started all 31 of his games at Kansas City last season and averaged 11.1 points.
Numbers that matter
| YSU returning minutes | 5.2% | Youngstown State's roster played almost none of last season's minutes, so its past team stats say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| CMU returning minutes | 39.7% | Central Michigan keeps its lead guard and a starting forward, a relative edge in continuity. |
| CMU block rate, last season | 11.9% | That ranked 55th, but shot-blocking center Nathan Claerbaut has left, and newcomers must replace him. |
| CMU turnover rate, last season | 19.0% | It ranked 314th, making ball security a priority for the home team. |
Youngstown State vs Central Michigan: quick answers
When is Youngstown State vs Central Michigan?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.