San Diego vs Colorado prediction: Barrington Hargress gives Colorado a head start on a rebuilt San Diego

San Diego starts from zero

Few teams in the country open a season with less continuity than San Diego. The Toreros return 4.3% of last season's minutes and 2.7% of its points, so last year's 12-21 team tells you almost nothing about the group taking the floor in Boulder. The bench changed too. The university announced on Feb. 18 that Steve Lavin would not return as head coach.

The roster is a collection of transfers who carried big roles at smaller programs. Davion Hill scored 14.0 points a game at Ball State with a 28.2% usage rate, meaning he finished a large share of his team's possessions. Antonio Munoz averaged 12.5 points at Grambling, almost all of it inside the arc. Terry McMorris gives them a rim protector, with 1.1 blocks per game at Eastern Illinois. Dusty Stromer adds shooting depth from Grand Canyon. The top returner, Alejandro Aviles, played 10.8 minutes a game last season.

The Toreros played an exhibition at Colorado State on Oct. 25. By Nov. 10 they will have had little time to form an identity.

Colorado's anchor is back

Colorado brings back 36.5% of last season's minutes, and the most important of them belong to Barrington Hargress. The senior guard averaged 14.7 points and 4.5 assists last season and shot 48.1% from three. His offensive rating of 133.1 (points produced per 100 possessions he used) was the best mark among Colorado's returners.

The big arrival is Justin Neely, considered the program's most important transfer. He posted 17.9 points and 11.5 rebounds a game at UNC Greensboro. Hargress running the offense and Neely finishing inside gives Tad Boyle a clear two-man structure. San Diego will need weeks to build anything comparable.

Last season's Buffs scored at a good rate, ranking 58th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). That number comes from a roster that has since lost Isaiah Johnson to Texas and Bangot Dak to Vanderbilt.

The frontcourt is still a question

Boyle called the frontcourt his team's question mark, and the news since then hasn't settled it. Jacksonville State transfer Iaroslav Niagu, a 1.2-blocks-a-game shot blocker last season, has been told to expect to be ineligible while his fifth-year petition works through the courts. Charlotte transfer David Gomez missed the summer and the start of fall camp with a foot problem. He has since returned to practice and played five minutes in the preseason win over North Texas, but no timetable for a full role has been given.

That leaves Noah Feddersen, who averaged 9.3 points and 1.0 blocks at North Dakota State, as the most proven big alongside Neely. Defense is where Colorado has to improve. Last season the Buffs ranked 301st of 365 in raw defensive efficiency and allowed opponents to shoot 36.3% from three, 335th nationally. Munoz and McMorris will test whether the new interior can hold up.

What to watch

Last season's team stats carry little weight for San Diego given its turnover, but a few of Colorado's habits are worth tracking:

• Ball security. Colorado turned it over on 14.8% of possessions last season, 49th nationally. Hargress is the reason that should hold.
• Hill's shot diet. He made 37 threes at Ball State at 33.9%. If he lives off the dribble, Colorado's perimeter defense gets an early exam.
• Gomez's minutes. Any real role would be the first sign the frontcourt picture is clearing up.
• Tip time. It's a 9 p.m. ET start on ESPN+, the opener for both teams.