Northern Arizona vs Arizona prediction: Krivas and a rebuilt Arizona front line test NAU's soft glass

New faces, familiar blueprint

Arizona went 36-3 last season and finished third nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Almost none of that team is left. Players on this roster logged just 27.5% of last season's minutes, and the guard core of Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries is gone.

What remains is the spine. Motiejus Krivas started all 39 games at center and posted an offensive rating of 129.2. Ivan Kharchenkov started every game too. Derek Dixon, who made 39.7% of his threes at North Carolina, ran point in the Oct. 13 exhibition alongside Caleb Holt and Bryce James on the wings.

The frontcourt is thinner than planned. Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is ineligible, and a Texas judge tentatively denied his request for a restraining order on Oct. 29. Even if he wins eligibility, he faces a four-game suspension. Freshman center Endurance Aiyamenkhue missed the Oct. 13 exhibition with a lower-leg injury, and no update has surfaced since. Evan Otten was cleared to play as of that date.

Second chances on the glass

This is where the game tilts. Arizona grabbed 38.4% of its own misses last season, 7th in the country. Northern Arizona secured 67.8% of opponents' misses, 288th. The Lumberjacks also gave up a 54.8% mark inside the arc, 322nd.

Size sharpens the gap. Arizona's minutes-weighted roster averages 80.2 inches; NAU's sits at 75.4. The Lumberjacks also lost forward Traivar Jackson (7.2 points and 5.0 rebounds a game), and their only incoming transfer, Dylan Anderson, played 6.8 minutes a game at Murray State.

Arizona also lived at the line, with a free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) that ranked 9th. NAU's defense was more disciplined there, ranking 105th in opponent free throw rate, so the cleaner Wildcat path runs through putbacks rather than whistles.

NAU's one real lever

Northern Arizona went 10-22 last season, but it could shoot. The Lumberjacks made 36.7% of their threes, 35th nationally. Brennan Peterson, who hit 41.1% from deep, is back, as are fellow starters Ryan Abelman and Chris Komin.

The problem is what left. Isaiah Shaw, their best shooter at 46.4%, transferred to UConn, and the roster returns 37.8% of last season's minutes. Arizona's defense also held opponents to 31.4% from three last season, 46th.

The Wildcats take threes rarely by design; their attempt rate ranked 363rd of 365. NAU's perimeter defense allowed 38.2% from deep, 361st, so the few threes Arizona does take should find space.

Tempo and the first look

Arizona played fast last season at 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 34th. NAU sat at 66.3, 250th, and would benefit from shortening the game. In Tucson, against a Big 12 preseason favorite ranked No. 5 in the AP poll, the home team usually sets the pace.

Last year's meeting offered little drama: Arizona won 84-49 on Nov. 11, 2025. This version of Arizona opens Nov. 2 against UCLA in Las Vegas, so it will have a real game behind it by tip. NAU's season data is a blank page.

• Watch: whether Krivas stays out of foul trouble with Godfrey and Aiyamenkhue unavailable.
• Watch: Peterson and Abelman's early threes, NAU's best shot at staying within range.