Kentucky vs Kansas prediction: Milan Momcilovic's jumper tests Bill Self's rebuilt Kansas defense in Chicago

The shooter and the system

Kentucky went shopping for shooting and came home with one of the best in the country. Milan Momcilovic made 136 threes at Iowa State last season at a 48.4% clip, and his 67.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) points to a scorer who barely wastes a possession.

He walks into the toughest kind of test for a transfer: a Bill Self defense. Kansas held opponents to a 45.0% effective field goal rate last season, 4th of 365, and to 30.6% from three. That defense also kept foes off the line, ranking 30th in opponent free throw rate. The players who built those numbers are mostly gone, but the scheme travels from year to year in Lawrence, and that is the matchup that frames Tuesday.

Momcilovic was working back from a finger injury in the preseason. One report had him fully cleared; another described him as near full activity, so his sharpness on Nov. 10 is worth watching.

Strangers in matching jerseys

Last season's team numbers say little here. Kentucky returns 21.4% of last season's minutes, and Kansas brings back even less of the group that went 24-11. Treat every 2025-26 stat as a description of the program, not this roster.

Kentucky's new backcourt runs through high-volume scorers. Alex Wilkins averaged 17.8 points at Furman with a usage rate (share of possessions he finished) of 33.8%, and Zoom Diallo scored 15.7 a game at Washington. Justin McBride adds a forward who shot 40% from three at James Madison. Mark Pope, in his third season, has to sort out who takes the big shots.

Kansas built around guards who score efficiently. Leroy Blyden Jr. averaged 16.4 points and shot 41% from deep at Toledo, and Dennis Parker Jr. put up 18.2 a game at Radford. Self has also praised freshman Trent Perry, saying he will be "hard to not play," and the Jayhawks add freshman Stokes, picked as the preseason Big 12 Freshman of the Year. Kansas's only live look so far ended in a 90-84 exhibition loss to Duke on Oct. 25.

Size inside, questions inside

Kansas's clearest edge on its roster sheet is around the rim. Trey Kaufman-Renn shot 57.8% at Purdue, and Christian Reeves shot 65.4% at Charleston. Keanu Dawes pulled down 8.8 rebounds a game at Utah. That trio gives Kansas several ways to score without a jumper.

Kentucky's answer is Malachi Moreno, its top returner, who blocked 1.5 shots a game last season. The Wildcats ranked 34th nationally in block rate a year ago, a reason Kansas's post players may find the lane more crowded than they expect. Kansas lost its own shot-blocking anchor, Flory Bidunga, to Louisville, so the Jayhawks' rim protection is a question too.

Who suits up

Both injury reports could shape the rotations.

For Kentucky, Kam Williams (foot) was listed week-to-week in an update from roughly Oct. 23 that said he had started returning to practice. Trent Noah (hamstring) is also week-to-week with no timeline, and Jerone Morton is out with a knee injury described as significant. Franck Kepnang was limited in practice around media day in late September. Morton's absence takes away a guard who shot 38.8% from three at Washington State.

For Kansas, Kaufman-Renn sat out the Duke exhibition, but Self said Oct. 28 he plans to play him. Kohl Rosario had not been cleared from a concussion as of Oct. 28. Reports on Reeves after shoulder surgery conflict, with one saying he is fully cleared and another saying he is not yet a full practice participant.

Chicago history

Kansas has won all three previous Champions Classic meetings with Kentucky, including an 89-84 game at the United Center in 2023. Kentucky's overall record in the event is 6-8. None of those players will be on the floor Tuesday, but the setting is familiar: a neutral floor in Chicago, a 9:30 p.m. ET tip, and two ranked teams, No. 17 Kansas and No. 23 Kentucky, playing their first big test of the season.