Utah Tech vs Utah State prediction: Falslev's return headlines Utah State's rebuilt debut against Potter and Utah Tech
Both in-state programs return about a quarter or less of last season's minutes, so this early-season game turns on which new pieces fit around each team's lone returning star.
- Utah State's deeper, more proven transfer class should control the backcourt, while Utah Tech leans on Ethan Potter inside to keep pace.
- Potter, a 59.9% shooter last season, against a Utah State interior that held opponents to 47.8% on twos (46th).
- No line is posted yet; last season's final adjusted net ratings had Utah State 26th and Utah Tech 200th.
Two rosters starting over
Utah Tech visits the Spectrum on Tuesday, Nov. 10, and neither team looks much like the one that played last season. Utah State brings back just 25.5% of last season's minutes under first-year coach Ben Jacobson, with 11 newcomers, nine of them transfers. Utah Tech returns even less, 21.9%, as Jon Judkins opens his 22nd season and the program's first in the Big Sky. Judkins called it a clean slate after losses to NIL and graduation.
That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide on both benches. Utah State went 29-7 and finished with an adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 19th in the country. Utah Tech went 19-15 with an adjusted defense ranked 249th. The better read comes from who is actually back and who arrived. Utah State, now in the Pac-12, carries a preseason KenPom ranking of 51st. Utah Tech was picked sixth in the Big Sky coaches' poll and seventh by the media.
Falslev back, shooters around him
The biggest preseason question in Logan got an answer. Mason Falslev, the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year, missed the Oct. 17 exhibition at Saint Mary's with a lower-body injury, then returned on Oct. 24 and led the Aggies with 25 points in a 101-79 win over Santa Clara. Last season he averaged 16.0 points and shot 39% from three.
Jacobson has surrounded him with experienced guards. Dallin Hall, a late addition from Virginia, and Wright State transfer Solomon Callaghan started alongside Falslev in the Denver exhibition. Callaghan made 39.5% of 177 threes last season. Utah Tech's defense held opponents to 30.2% from deep last season, 21st nationally, but almost none of the players who built that number are on this roster.
Potter against the paint
Utah Tech's offense runs through Ethan Potter, a preseason all-conference forward and the only returner who played major minutes. He averaged 16.9 points on 59.9% shooting last season, with an offensive rating of 130.2, almost all of it inside the arc.
That sends him into the strength of last season's Utah State defense. The Aggies held opponents to 47.8% on twos, 46th in the country. Their new frontcourt adds Connor Turnbull, who blocked 2.3 shots per game at Evansville and started the Oct. 10 exhibition after an injury late last season, plus Will Hornseth, who played for Jacobson at Northern Iowa. If Potter can draw fouls and finish over them, Utah Tech has a path to a respectable night.
Pressure on an unproven backcourt
Utah Tech lost its top three guards and replaced them with transfers whose numbers last season were thin. Rex Sunderland, who started 32 games at Stonehill, posted an offensive rating of 78.6 and shot 27.4% from three. Mark Brown Jr. made 23.3% of his threes at Valparaiso.
Utah State's defense lived on takeaways last season, forcing turnovers on 20.5% of possessions (33rd) with a steal rate ranked 22nd. Utah Tech coughed it up on 17.6% of possessions last season, 239th, with a different set of ballhandlers. Live-ball turnovers would let the Aggies run and turn a home crowd that already sold out its season tickets into a factor.
What to watch
- Falslev's minutes: his return looked clean in the Santa Clara exhibition; a full workload confirms it.
- Potter's touches: Utah Tech needs him scoring efficiently to hang around.
- Turnovers in the first 10 minutes: the clearest early sign of whether Utah Tech's new guards can handle pressure.
- History: the last meeting, in December 2024, ended Utah State 92, Utah Tech 62 in Logan.
Key players
- Mason Falslev (Utah State): Averaged 16.0 points and shot 39% from three last season, then scored 25 in the Oct. 24 exhibition after missing the previous one.
- Solomon Callaghan (Utah State): Made 39.5% of 177 threes and 92.6% of his free throws at Wright State last season.
- Connor Turnbull (Utah State): Blocked 2.3 shots per game with a 34.4% usage rate at Evansville last season.
- Dallin Hall (Utah State): Started all 36 games and averaged 4.4 assists at Virginia last season.
- Ethan Potter (Utah Tech): Preseason all-conference pick who averaged 16.9 points on 59.9% shooting last season.
- Rex Sunderland (Utah Tech): Handed out 3.2 assists per game at Stonehill last season but shot 27.4% from three.
- Alex Dupre (Utah Tech): Made 83.9% of his free throws at Portland State last season in 15.4 minutes a night.
Numbers that matter
| Utah Tech returning minutes | 21.9% | Almost all of last season's production is gone, leaving Potter as the lone proven returner. |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State opponent 2-point % | 47.8% | Last season's interior defense ranked 46th, the area Potter has to attack. |
| Utah State forced turnover rate | 20.5% | Ranked 33rd last season, a pressure test for Utah Tech's new transfer guards. |
| Falslev exhibition points | 25 | His Oct. 24 return against Santa Clara eased worries about the lower-body injury that cost him the Saint Mary's exhibition. |
Utah Tech vs Utah State: quick answers
When is Utah Tech vs Utah State?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.