Georgia State vs Fresno State prediction: Fresno State and Georgia State both start over with transfer-built rosters

Two rosters with no history

Most early-season games come with a baseline. This one barely has any. Fresno State returns 0.0% of last season's minutes, and Georgia State brings back 2.4%, all of it from reserve guard Chris Jones.

The Bulldogs are in Vance Walberg's second season and their first in the Pac-12, with 13 new players on the roster. Georgia State hired Jon Cremins as the program's 17th head coach. He arrived with an entirely new staff and 14 newcomers: 11 transfers and three freshmen.

Last season's records were 13-19 for Fresno State and 10-22 for Georgia State. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, ranked Fresno State 131st and Georgia State 303rd. Those numbers describe players who are gone, so treat them as a sketch of each program's floor, not a forecast.

Georgia State's guard stockpile

Cremins built around experienced guards. Jacob Meyer earned Preseason All-Sun Belt honors after scoring 12.4 points per game at UAB last season. Jaden Jackson started all 32 of his games at South Dakota State. Eric Parnell made 80 threes at Fairleigh Dickinson.

The group has volume but little efficiency. Meyer shot 31.4% from three last season and Jackson shot 32.2%. Shot quality is the question for a program that ranked 362nd in effective field goal percentage last season (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times).

The interior is more interesting. Terrance Dixon Jr. shot 69.3% from the floor at Southern without attempting a three. Jonas Sirtautas blocked 1.8 shots per game at Loyola Maryland. Both are efficient finishers, though Dixon shot 62.3% and Sirtautas 47.9% from the line, which matters late in a close game.

Fresno State's size and a shooter

The Bulldogs are the bigger team. Fresno State's minutes-weighted average height is 79.9 inches, against 76.2 for Georgia State. Centers Bradey Henige and Baye Fall give Walberg size that the Panthers' guard-heavy rotation can't match.

The best shooter on either roster wears Fresno State colors. Ross Candelino hit 42.6% of his threes at Lipscomb on 155 attempts, with an offensive rating of 124.9. Dragos Lungu carried a 27.2% usage rate at UT Martin in a six-game stint. BYU transfer KJ Perry and Brian Amuneke were on the floor in the exhibition. Roger Fabrega and Marko Vuckovic are expected to be significant contributors, and Walberg's full starting five hasn't been confirmed.

DJ Stickman is not expected to play this season because of a knee injury.

The defensive warning sign

The one game either team has played together on record went badly. Fresno State lost an Oct. 24 exhibition to Cal State Fullerton 96-78, allowing 42 points in the first half and 54 in the second. Amuneke, Perry and Henige were the bright spots.

Georgia State was scheduled to play an exhibition at Georgia on Oct. 7, but no result has surfaced. The Panthers host Bowling Green in the SBC-MAC Challenge, per their schedule. Status for fifth-year AJ Smith, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury at Temple, hasn't been addressed.

• Whether Fresno State's defense tightens after giving up 96 in the exhibition.
• Candelino's volume from three against a Georgia State perimeter group still learning a new system.
• How Dixon and Sirtautas hold up against Fresno State's bigger frontcourt.