Montana vs San Francisco prediction: San Francisco starts over almost entirely as Montana leans on its returners

A roster built from scratch

Chris Gerlufsen is still in charge at San Francisco, but almost nothing else from last season's 17-16 team remains. Players on this season's roster logged just 1.4% of last year's minutes and 0.5% of its points. The Dons added 14 new players, 11 of them freshmen.

The departures explain the gap. Ryan Beasley (13.6 points per game) left for Washington, Tyrone Riley IV went to Oregon, and Legend Smiley, who shot 42% from three, is now at Oregon State. The only returner with minutes last season, Aidan Braccia, averaged 5.6 a game. Newbury is also back after missing last season with an injury, though no current update on him has surfaced.

The most proven newcomer is Ben Oosterbaan, who started every game at St. Thomas last season and posted a 117.9 offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions used). Ismaila Diagne arrives from Gonzaga after playing a reserve role there.

Montana's core is small but real

Montana is rebuilding too, just less drastically. Its roster returns 33% of last season's minutes, and the departures hurt. Money Williams, who averaged 20.6 points and carried a 34.1% usage rate, is now at Boston College.

What Travis DeCuire, in his 13th season, does have is two returners who started nearly every game last season. Tyler Thompson shot 40.1% from three across 33 starts, and Kenyon Aguino posted a 117 offensive rating in 34 starts. Neither carried a heavy load: Thompson's usage was 14.3%, so how much he can take on without Williams is an open question. The newcomers include Jalen Brown and Josiah Sanders from Cal State Dominguez Hills, Jordan Clark from Central Washington and Noah Bendinger from Boise State. The Grizzlies list seven seniors, several of them in their first college season.

Big Sky media picked Montana fourth in the preseason poll, with 254 points and one first-place vote. No Grizzly made the preseason all-conference team.

What last season still says

Last season's team numbers are a weak guide for both programs, but they hint at coaching habits. Montana shot the ball superbly, with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 56.4%, 18th nationally. It also turned the ball over on 20% of possessions, 345th of 365, and grabbed only 22% of its own misses, 359th. If DeCuire's system carries over, expect efficient shots, few second chances and some sloppy stretches.

San Francisco under Gerlufsen played slowly, ranking 324th in pace, and leaned on the three, ranking 51st in 3-point attempt rate. Its defense was the weak spot, allowing 112.5 points per 100 possessions, 286th nationally. With an almost entirely new roster, only the tempo and shot-selection habits are likely to carry over.

Home floor and an open market

The game tips at 10:00 PM ET at the Sobrato Center, where the Dons beat Montana 71-67 in December 2024. Last season's final adjusted ratings, which adjust for opponents, put San Francisco 117th and Montana 190th. Those figures describe teams that no longer exist in any meaningful sense.

No spread or total has been posted. When one appears, the key question is how heavily it leans on San Francisco's home floor and last year's rating, given how little of that team returns.