Yale vs Baylor prediction: Isaac Celiscar faces the Yale program that made him, now in Waco
Baylor rebuilt its roster through the portal, and one of its new forwards knows every set James Jones is likely to call.
- Baylor's rebuilt, guard-heavy roster should control the game at home, while Yale tries to slow it down and win with threes.
- Isaac Celiscar against his old program: Yale lost all four frontcourt starters from last season, and he is one of them.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had Baylor 46th and Yale 85th nationally.
Celiscar against his old team
Last season Isaac Celiscar started all 31 of Yale's games and was its most efficient scorer. Next Tuesday he plays against the Bulldogs in a Baylor uniform. He averaged 13.2 points with a 62.1% effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes. His offensive rating of 137.1, an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions he used, led the team.
Yale lost him with two years of eligibility left, and he wasn't the only one to go. Nick Townsend went to Stanford, Samson Aletan left a year early for Providence, and Casey Simmons is also gone. That is the entire starting frontcourt. Yale returns just 36.8% of last season's minutes, so its 24-7 record from last season says little about this team. James Jones, now in his 28th season, will be scouting a forward who learned his system from the inside.
A Baylor backcourt built overnight
Baylor turned over even more of its roster. Only 25.1% of last season's minutes return from a team that finished 17-17. Scott Drew replaced them with transfers. Brett Decker Jr. averaged 16.9 points at Liberty and made 47.1% of his threes on heavy volume. Kayden Mingo came from Penn State with 2.1 steals per game, though his outside shot is a concern: he made 24.4% of his threes there.
The group has already shown what it can do. Baylor won exhibitions against preseason No. 1 Florida and No. 3 Illinois. Mingo scored 31 against the Gators, and returning guard Isaac Williams IV, projected as the point guard, scored 28 against Illinois. Top-five recruit Dylan Mingo adds more depth in the backcourt. Center Juslin Bodo Bodo, who missed all of last season with an arm injury, was reported cleared for all basketball activities. No 2026-27 status for JJ White, who suffered a stress fracture in his foot in February, was found.
Yale's shooters set the terms
Yale's identity last season was patience and shooting. The Bulldogs made 39.6% of their threes, 2nd in the country, and played at the 286th-fastest pace of 365 teams. The shooting core is largely back. Jordan Brathwaite made 44.1% from deep off the bench, Trevor Mullin hit 89.3% at the line, and Riley Fox carried the team's highest usage rate at 26.6%.
The test is whether those shooters can get clean looks without Celiscar and Townsend drawing defenders inside. Division III transfer Connor May adds another shooter. Baylor's defense ranked 238th in efficiency last season, but almost all of that roster is gone, so it says little about this one. If Yale keeps the game slow and its threes fall, it stays in range. If Baylor's guards speed it up, the Bulldogs' thinner, less experienced frontcourt will be exposed.
Second chances and a long week
Caden Powell is the returner who matters on the glass. He grabbed 6.3 rebounds a game last season and made 67.2% of his shots, almost all of them close to the basket. Last season's Baylor team ranked 19th in offensive rebound rate, the share of its own misses it recovered. Yale has lost Aletan, its main shot blocker at 1.4 blocks per game, so the Bears' size could turn missed shots into second chances.
The schedule doesn't help Yale. The Bulldogs open at home against Howard, then play at UCF, at Baylor and at Northeastern in a seven-day span. They do have history in this matchup: as a 12 seed, Yale beat Baylor 79-75 in the NCAA Tournament during Baylor's 2015-16 season. Jones, now in his 28th season, has been at Yale's helm a long time.
Key players
- Isaac Celiscar (Baylor): Posted a 137.1 offensive rating and 62.1% effective field goal percentage for Yale last season.
- Brett Decker Jr. (Baylor): Averaged 16.9 points at Liberty last season and made 47.1% of 242 three-point attempts.
- Kayden Mingo (Baylor): Scored 31 in Baylor's exhibition win over Florida after averaging 2.1 steals at Penn State last season.
- Isaac Williams IV (Baylor): Averaged 10.4 points last season and scored 28 in the exhibition win over Illinois.
- Trevor Mullin (Yale): Yale's top returning scorer at 11.5 points per game last season, with 89.3% free throw shooting.
- Jordan Brathwaite (Yale): Made 44.1% of his threes off the bench last season.
- Riley Fox (Yale): Scored 10.0 points a game last season with a team-high 26.6% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| Yale returning minutes | 36.8% | Yale lost all four frontcourt starters, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor returning minutes | 25.1% | Baylor turned over even more of its roster, rebuilding around transfers and freshmen. |
| Yale 3-point % last season | 39.6% | Ranked 2nd nationally, and Yale's best returning players are shooters. |
| Celiscar offensive rating last season | 137.1 | Yale's most efficient player last season now plays for its opponent. |
| Baylor offensive rebound % last season | 37.2% | Ranked 19th nationally; Powell returns, and Yale lost its shot blocker. |
Yale vs Baylor: quick answers
When is Yale vs Baylor?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.