Wofford vs North Carolina prediction: Michael Malone's rebuilt North Carolina gets its first test against Wofford

A program starting over

North Carolina enters November with a new coach and nearly a new roster. Michael Malone replaced the fired Hubert Davis after a 24-9 season that ended with an overtime loss to VCU in the first round. The players on this year's roster logged just 17.0% of last season's minutes and scored 13.2% of its points.

That means last season's numbers describe a different team. The Tar Heels finished 27th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Most of that production left with Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, who went to the NBA, and Seth Trimble, who is now at Louisville.

Malone rebuilt through the portal. Terrence Brown scored 19.9 points per game at Utah with a 33.8% usage rate, so he took a large share of the Utes' possessions. Neo Avdalas averaged 4.5 assists at Virginia Tech. Matt Able made 35.5% of his threes at NC State. Brown, Avdalas and Able start in the preseason rotation alongside returner Jarin Stevenson and center Sayon Keita.

The hole in the middle

The biggest unknown is at center. Cameron Fens averaged 14.4 points and 8.7 rebounds at South Dakota. He has been ineligible since a Tennessee appeals court stayed the injunction protecting his fifth year on Aug. 27. He sat out both exhibitions, and a later motion in Tennessee court was denied. He is practicing, and his next chance to play is an Oct. 27 exhibition against Charlotte, if a court rules in his favor.

Without him, the center job goes to Keita, Alexandros Samodurov or Cade Bennerman. None of them has played a college minute. UNC still has a clear size edge: its minutes-weighted average height is 78.7 inches to Wofford's 75.9. The question is whether inexperienced bigs can turn that height into rebounds and rim protection, or whether Wofford's guards can pull them away from the basket.

Wofford's offense travels

Wofford went 19-13 last season under Kevin Giltner, who is now in his second year. The Terriers' strength was offense: they ranked 74th in raw offensive efficiency. They protected the ball, with a turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) of 13.8%, 16th nationally. They also shot often from deep, taking 43.8% of their field goal attempts from three.

That style suits this opponent. Last season's UNC defense ranked 352nd in forced turnover rate, and a new roster has given no sign it will be more disruptive. A team that rarely turns the ball over against one that rarely forces turnovers should get plenty of clean shots. Wofford has a tough run ahead: it lost at the buzzer to Virginia Tech in an Oct. 16 exhibition and opens the regular season at Tennessee on Nov. 3.

Where the Terriers break down

Defense was Wofford's problem last season. The Terriers ranked 298th in defensive efficiency, and opponents shot 36.3% from three against them, 333rd nationally. That is a bad fit against UNC's new shooters. Angelo Brizzi made 37% of his threes at Buffalo and shot 84% at the line, and he joins Able as a reliable floor-spacer.

Wofford's defense also allowed 53.0% shooting on twos, 262nd. A Carolina team built around Brown driving to the basket should find room inside even if its centers struggle.

What to watch

• Fens's status. Any court ruling before Nov. 6 changes UNC's frontcourt.
• Brown's shot volume. His usage at Utah suggests he will take over possessions while the new roster learns to play together.
• Wofford's threes. The Terriers' shooting volume is their path to keeping this close.
• Tip time. Listings show both 6 p.m. and 7 p.m., and the official time hasn't been confirmed.