Winthrop vs Kennesaw State prediction: Winthrop's rebuilt roster opens its road schedule against Kennesaw State

Who is actually back

Winthrop won 23 games last season, and almost all of that team is gone. The Eagles return just 11.1% of last season's minutes. Kennesaw State, the defending Conference USA champion, returns 30.8%. That isn't much, but it includes the right players.

Those players are sophomores Trey Simpson and Amir Taylor, both named to the Preseason All-CUSA team. Simpson averaged 9.0 points and 1.3 blocks last season. The Owls still have plenty to replace: Simeon Cottle's scoring, plus RJ Johnson (now at Mississippi State) and Braedan Lue (now at Tennessee). Jacoby Hill, who started for Jacksonville State, is the headline arrival. Kennesaw State was picked second in the Conference USA preseason poll.

Mark Prosser's rebuild at Winthrop runs through the portal. Logan Duncomb took 18.2 points a game with him to Notre Dame, and no returner played a major role. Spence Sims, who shot 43% from three at Gardner-Webb, is the most proven piece among the newcomers. With this much turnover, last season's team numbers are a weak guide, especially for Winthrop.

Both teams live at the line

Last season both offenses drew fouls at an elite clip. Free throw rate measures free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and Kennesaw State ranked 11th in the country while Winthrop ranked 15th.

The Owls' defense handed out free throws just as freely. Opponents' free throw rate against them was 45.5%, which ranked 355th of 365. Kennesaw State also made only 69.3% of its own free throws. If those habits survived the roster churn, this game could stall in the bonus. A close finish would then depend on whoever converts at the stripe, and that hasn't been the Owls' strength.

Size at the rim

Kennesaw State's roster averages 79.1 inches, weighted by minutes. Winthrop's averages 76.5, and the Eagles' transfer class leans heavily on guards.

The Owls blocked 13.7% of opponents' two-point attempts last season, which ranked 18th nationally, and Simpson's shot-blocking is back. Winthrop's newcomers will need to win with outside shooting and dribble penetration rather than over-the-top finishing against that length.

Tempo and the road

Winthrop played fast last season, at 72 possessions per 40 minutes, the 17th-quickest pace in the country. Kennesaw State sat closer to the middle, ranked 128th. Early in the season, a group of new players running at speed can produce turnovers as easily as easy baskets.

This is Winthrop's first true road game of the season, and it starts a stretch with four of five games away from home. Kennesaw State gets a home crowd, and it is the defending Conference USA champion.