Virginia-Lynchburg vs The Citadel prediction: The Citadel's rebuilt roster gets a home tune-up against Virginia-Lynchburg
With barely an eighth of last season's minutes back, the Bulldogs' third game is less about the result than about which newcomers Ed Conroy trusts.
- The Citadel should control this at McAlister Field House; the real story is how Conroy's rotation of newcomers sorts itself out.
- Watch Green Bay transfer Ramel Bethea around the rim, a spot where last season's Bulldogs allowed opponents 58.2% on twos.
- No spread or total had been posted as of Oct. 31; last season's slow pace, 310th of 365, is the style baseline.
A roster starting over
The Citadel went 11-22 last season and was picked 10th of 11 in the SoCon preseason coaches' poll. The bigger shift is who is wearing the uniform. Only 13.8% of last season's minutes return, so last season's numbers say little about this group. The roster carries six returners and 11 newcomers, including seven transfers and four freshmen.
By Nov. 10 the Bulldogs will have opened at Loyola Chicago on Nov. 2 and hosted Erskine on Nov. 6. This home date against an NCCAA opponent, not a Division I program, is another chance for Conroy, in the fifth season of his second stint, to sort out minutes.
Fixing the interior
Last season's defense was the problem. Its adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 349th of 365, and opponents shot 58.2% on twos, 362nd nationally.
That makes Ramel Bethea a player to watch. The Green Bay transfer shot 74.6% from the field last season and blocked 1.3 shots a game in limited minutes. Against a smaller opponent, his rim protection and finishing should get a long look.
Shooters on the perimeter
The Bulldogs lived behind the arc last season, with a 3-point attempt rate (share of shots taken from three) of 49.7%, 17th in the country. They need new shooters to carry that load. BYU grad transfer Tyler Mrus is billed as a key perimeter shooter, and Furman transfer Eddrin Bronson made 30 threes last season. Returner Keynan Davis started eight games and averaged 4.8 points.
Virginia-Lynchburg's last reported results came last season, including a 135-57 loss at UNC Greensboro and a 120-50 loss to Morgan State. No injury news had surfaced for either team as of Oct. 31.
Key players
- Ramel Bethea (The Citadel): Shot 74.6% from the field and blocked 1.3 shots per game last season at Green Bay.
- Tyler Mrus (The Citadel): Hit 90.9% of his free throws at BYU last season, though he made 29.8% of his threes.
- Eddrin Bronson (The Citadel): Averaged 5.4 points in 19.2 minutes per game at Furman last season.
- Keynan Davis (The Citadel): The top returner averaged 4.8 points in 12.7 minutes per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes | 13.8% | The Citadel's share of last season's minutes still on the roster, which makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent 2-point %, last season | 58.2% | Ranked 362nd of 365, the interior weakness the newcomers are meant to fix. |
| 3-point attempt rate, last season | 49.7% | 17th nationally; the Bulldogs built their offense around the three. |
| Preseason SoCon poll | 10th | Where coaches picked The Citadel in an 11-team league. |
Virginia-Lynchburg vs The Citadel: quick answers
When is Virginia-Lynchburg vs The Citadel?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.