Valparaiso vs Purdue prediction: Omer Mayer inherits Purdue's offense as Valparaiso tests the rebuild
Purdue lost the backcourt that ran one of the nation's best offenses, and a Valpo team that couldn't shoot last season gets an early look at the replacements.
- Purdue's size and shooting should control a slow game, but a reshuffled backcourt gives Valpo room to hang around early.
- Omer Mayer running the point against a Valpo defense that held opponents to 32.0% from three last season.
- No line is posted yet; last season's final ratings had Purdue eighth in adjusted net efficiency and Valpo 163rd.
Life after Braden Smith
For most of the last few years, Purdue's offense started and ended with Braden Smith. He's gone, and so is most of the production around him. Purdue brings back 42.3% of last season's minutes and 35.5% of its points.
Smith averaged 8.8 assists. Fletcher Loyer, who shot 43.2% from three, is also gone, along with Trey Kaufman-Renn and starting center Oscar Cluff. Those four started nearly every game for a team that went 30-9.
The point guard job looks like Omer Mayer's to lose, with Luke Ertel the alternative. Mayer was a high-volume reserve last season, using 22.5% of possessions while he was on the floor. His offensive rating of 103.9 was well below what Purdue's starters produced, so this game is an early read on whether he can run the offense efficiently rather than just take shots.
The frontcourt is new too. Daniel Jacobsen is projected at center and Caden Pierce at forward. Enzo Shahrvin, a 6-9 French forward, was cleared by the NCAA on Oct. 1 with one season of eligibility and is expected to start at the four. Freshmen Sinan Huan and Rivers Knight are expected to play limited minutes.
Valpo's shooting problem
Valparaiso's issue last season was simple: it couldn't make shots. Its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was 48.3%, 327th nationally. Inside the arc it was worse, at 46.6%, 349th of 365.
The Beacons made up for some of it at the line. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 85th. That ran into a problem: Purdue rarely fouled last season, and its opponents' free throw rate ranked 13th in the country.
The defense is where Roger Powell Jr.'s team, now in his third season, has a case. Valpo held opponents to 32.0% from three last season, 76th nationally. Purdue's offense was built on shooting, hitting 38.3% from deep last season, 14th. With Loyer and Smith gone, that perimeter edge is less certain.
Expectations are rising in Valparaiso. The Beacons were picked fifth in the Missouri Valley preseason poll, their highest preseason vote since joining the league, and KenPom rates them 140th.
Few possessions, little margin
Neither team likes to run. Purdue averaged 64.3 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 330th nationally, and Valpo ranked 267th in pace.
A slow game with few possessions usually helps the underdog, because there are fewer chances for the better team to pull away. Purdue answered that last season with second chances, ranking 27th in offensive rebound rate. With a new frontcourt built around Jacobsen, Pierce and Shahrvin, Valpo's ability to finish defensive possessions is worth watching.
Where this falls on the calendar
This is Purdue's first home game. The Boilermakers open Nov. 2 against Gonzaga in Las Vegas, so Valpo gets them at Mackey Arena right after a high-profile road trip. Tip time isn't settled yet.
Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) show the gap Purdue starts with. The Boilermakers finished second in adjusted offense at 132.9 and eighth in adjusted net efficiency. Valpo finished 163rd. Given how much of Purdue's roster has turned over, those ratings say more about the program than about this group.
No spread or total has been posted. Neither team had reported injuries as of Oct. 19.
What to watch - Mayer's decision-making and turnovers in his first home start - Whether Purdue's new shooters make up for Loyer's volume - Valpo's two-point finishing against Purdue's new frontcourt
Where the money is on Valparaiso vs Purdue
On the Kalshi moneyline: Valparaiso: 67% of bets, 17% of the money; Purdue: 33% of bets, 84% of the money.
Key players
- Omer Mayer (Purdue): Used 22.5% of possessions off the bench last season with a 103.9 offensive rating.
- C.J. Cox (Purdue): Started all 39 games last season and posted a 134.5 offensive rating with 37.3% three-point shooting.
- Jack Benter (Purdue): Hit 40.9% of his threes last season for a 62.8% effective field goal percentage.
- Gicarri Harris (Purdue): Shot 35.5% from three and 86.1% at the line in 15.8 minutes per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Purdue returning minutes | 42.3% | Most of the rotation that went 30-9 last season is gone, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Valpo two-point percentage, last season | 46.6% | It ranked 349th nationally, the biggest weakness in an offense that struggled to score. |
| Purdue opponent free throw rate, last season | 25.5% | Ranked 13th, which cuts against Valpo's habit of getting to the line. |
| Valpo opponent three-point percentage, last season | 32.0% | A 76th-ranked perimeter defense that will test Purdue's new shooters. |
Valparaiso vs Purdue: quick answers
When is Valparaiso vs Purdue?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Valparaiso vs Purdue?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Valparaiso: 67% of bets, 17% of the money; Purdue: 33% of bets, 84% of the money.