Bucknell vs Virginia prediction: Virginia's rim wall waits for a Bucknell team rebuilt almost from scratch

Two programs, two rebuilds

Both rosters turned over this spring, but not in the same way. Virginia, fresh off a 30-6 season and 15-3 in the ACC under Ryan Odom, now in his second year, starts at No. 9 in the AP poll and brings back 51.4% of last season's minutes. The core is intact: preseason ACC Player of the Year Thijs De Ridder, sharpshooter Sam Lewis, point guard Chance Mallory and center Johann Grünloh. Elijah Gertrude is also back after an ACL tear cost him a full season, and he impressed in the preseason.

Bucknell went 10-23 last season and returns just 34.7% of its minutes and 24.5% of its points. Its leading scorer, center Amon Dorries, left for Richmond. Coach John Griffin III has a new-look group built on spring transfers, including Luca Soroa Schaller from Northeastern, and international additions. Last season's team numbers describe a roster that mostly isn't here anymore, so read them as a rough guide to Bucknell's identity, not a forecast.

Nowhere to go inside

Virginia's defense was built around the rim last season. Its block rate, the share of opponent two-point tries it swatted, was 17.3%, second in Division I. Opponents made 44.8% of their twos, eighth-best nationally. Grünloh averaged 2.2 blocks a game, and the rotation is measurably bigger: Virginia's minutes-weighted height is 77.9 inches against Bucknell's 74.1.

Bucknell was not built to win that fight. It made 50.4% of its twos last season, 270th in the country, and the player who scored most efficiently inside for the Bison is now in Richmond. Expect Bucknell to settle for perimeter shots against the length.

The size gap shows up on the glass too. Virginia grabbed 37.8% of its own misses last season, 11th nationally, while Bucknell's defensive rebounding ranked 252nd. Second chances could pile up for the Cavaliers.

Open looks for Virginia's shooters

Bucknell's perimeter defense was a real problem last season. Opponents hit 37.0% from three, 354th of 365, and took a large share of their shots from deep, a rate that ranked 25th.

That suits Virginia. The Cavaliers' 3-point attempt rate ranked 37th last season, and they made 36.2%. Lewis shot 40.3% from three. Jurian Dixon, who arrived from UC Irvine, hit 38.5% there last season while scoring 15.9 points a game. Christian Harmon, a high-volume shooter from Arkansas State, made two threes in two minutes at Villanova on Oct. 22 while dealing with a foot or lower-body issue. How much he plays two weeks later is still unclear.

Ball security and a slow game

Bucknell's clearest way to steal possessions is with its hands. The Bison's forced turnover rate, opponent turnovers per 100 possessions, ranked 116th last season, while Virginia's ranked 284th. The trouble is the other end. Bucknell turned it over on 19.1% of its possessions, 325th nationally, and point guard Jayden Williams is the main holdover running the offense.

Neither team pushes the pace. Bucknell played at 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes last season and Virginia at 66.2, so expect a deliberate game in which Virginia's efficiency edge matters on every trip.

Mallory's health is the one availability note to track. He missed the Sept. 27 exhibition, then returned for the Oct. 9 game against Richmond and was described as healthy and in line to start. Nothing newer has surfaced. Virginia opens Nov. 3 against Drexel, so that game will offer the next look at the rotation, including first-year forward Adekunle, who started against Richmond.