UT Martin vs Arkansas State prediction: Arkansas State's transfer rebuild opens at home against UT Martin's pressure

Two rosters, starting from scratch

Ryan Pannone's second season at Arkansas State starts with a nearly new team. Players on this season's roster account for just 5.5% of last season's minutes, and last season's team went 20-12. Christian Harmon, who scored 12.8 points per game, is now at Virginia. Three more rotation guards and forwards are gone too.

UT Martin returns only a bit more. Jeremy Shulman, in his third season, brings back 18.2% of last season's minutes and 9.9% of its points. Andrija Bukumirovic, who scored 13.8 points per game last season, left for Boston College. That means last season's team numbers are a weak guide for both sides. They describe how each coach likes to play, not who will be on the floor in Jonesboro.

Arkansas State reloaded through the portal. Jordan Pyke averaged 12.6 points at Incarnate Word last season and shot 40.4% from three. Layne Taylor posted an offensive rating of 124.1 at Murray State. Taylor and Tameron Ferguson were named preseason All-Sun Belt second team, and the Red Wolves were picked first in the league's coaches' poll.

A pace clash by design

Pannone's first Arkansas State team played fast: 72.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 15th-most in Division I last season. UT Martin went the other way at 65 possessions, 306th.

The Skyhawks won by defending. Last season they allowed 96.7 points per 100 possessions, eighth in the country, on their way to a 22-11 record. If Shulman can rebuild that defense quickly, this game shrinks. If Arkansas State's new guards get loose in transition, the home side controls how the game is played. Shulman has said he thinks 12 players can legitimately play in every game, so UT Martin may lean on depth and fresh legs to handle the tempo.

Extra possessions, both ways

Both coaches built last season's teams around the offensive glass. UT Martin grabbed 38.6% of its own misses (fourth nationally) and Arkansas State grabbed 38.0% (ninth). Neither protected the ball, though. UT Martin turned it over on 22.1% of possessions, 360th of 365, and Arkansas State wasn't much better.

UT Martin's defense made up for it by forcing turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions, 16th in the country. That pressure is the most portable piece of Shulman's system. It also lines up against an Arkansas State backcourt still learning to play together. Pannone said in early October that injuries had limited practice to one-, two- and three-possession drills, with no players named. Long stretches of five-on-five against a pressing team are exactly what that kind of preseason doesn't prepare for.

Setting and history

This is Arkansas State's home game at First National Bank Arena, a non-conference date four days after the Red Wolves visit No. 20 Alabama. UT Martin has said its goal is the program's first NCAA tournament bid, and early non-conference road games like this one build that résumé.

The teams have history in this building. Arkansas State won 70-64 in November 2022, and UT Martin won 92-78 there in 2017-18. Neither result says much about these rosters.

The market hasn't weighed in yet. Once a line appears, the key question is how much credit the Sun Belt favorite's portal haul earns against an opponent whose defensive identity has survived roster turnover before.