Troy vs Florida State prediction: Florida State's almost-new roster debuts against a 22-win Troy team
Luke Loucks returns almost none of last season's minutes, so the Seminoles' first real test is whether a transfer-heavy rotation can handle a Troy program used to winning.
- Florida State's home floor and last season's higher adjusted rating should show. Its turnover makes early possessions unpredictable against a Troy team that won 22 games last season.
- Kam Taylor, last season's 18.9-point scorer at UNC Asheville, against a Troy defense that held opponents to 31.5% from three last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had Florida State 67th and Troy 148th of 365.
A roster built from scratch
Florida State is barely the same team that finished 18-15 in Loucks' first season. Players on this roster logged just 6.3% of last season's minutes and 4.7% of its points. That makes the Seminoles' 2025-26 team numbers a weak guide to what shows up at the Tucker Center.
The departures were the core. Robert McCray V averaged 16.3 points and ran the offense. Chauncey Wiggins was an efficient scorer, shooting 38.9% from three. The lone returner of note is AJ Swinton, a reserve forward who played 15.8 minutes a game.
The replacements arrive with résumés. Kam Taylor carried UNC Asheville at 18.9 points per game. Sebastian Rancik started for Colorado and shot 86% at the line. Anthony Robinson II brings defensive hands from Missouri, with 1.6 steals per game. Loucks, 36 and the youngest Power Four head coach, also has a freshman class that includes 7-0 center Marcis Ponder. The team was picked seventh of 18 in the ACC media poll.
Availability is murky. An undated roster listing tags Swinton and freshman Collin Paul with knee issues, and Jasen Lopez with an unspecified non-injury designation. None of it is confirmed as of Oct. 19.
Troy's ratings tell two stories
Troy went 22-12 last season, and its raw numbers looked strong. Its net efficiency, points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, ranked 81st nationally. Once the schedule was factored in, the picture shifted. Troy's final adjusted net rating ranked 148th, while Florida State's ranked 67th. Adjusted efficiency is points per 100 possessions after accounting for the quality of opponents.
The Trojans' strength was their perimeter defense. Opponents shot 31.5% from three against them, 51st in the country. Troy has also reshuffled. Adam Howard's roster adds transfers Robert Davis Jr. and Jacoi Hutchinson, several first-year players, and Donovan Oday, a fifth-year guard from Northern Kentucky announced Oct. 16.
Threes, size and the glass
Both programs lived behind the arc last season. Florida State took 50.6% of its shots from three, 14th in the nation. Troy's 45.9% ranked 53rd. Neither made them at a high clip, so whichever new shooters connect early could swing the game. Taylor, a 28.1% three-point shooter at Asheville, is more of a driver than a spot-up threat.
Size favors the home team. Florida State's minutes-weighted average height is 79.4 inches, against 76.8 for Troy. That matters because Troy hunted second chances last season, ranking 54th in offensive rebound rate, the share of its own misses it grabbed back. Florida State's defensive rebounding ranked 334th, but with a new frontcourt that figure may say little about this group.
What to watch
- Pace. Florida State played fast last season, 39th in possessions per 40 minutes. Troy sat near the middle at 176th.
- Taylor's usage. He used 29.6% of Asheville's possessions. How Loucks splits shots between him and Rancik will shape the offense.
- Turnovers. Florida State forced turnovers at the 66th-best rate nationally last season. A new Troy backcourt could be vulnerable to that pressure.
- Tip time. The game is scheduled for Nov. 6, with the time still to be announced.
Key players
- Kam Taylor (Florida State): Averaged 18.9 points in 34.7 minutes at UNC Asheville last season, using 29.6% of possessions.
- Sebastian Rancik (Florida State): Scored 12.3 points per game at Colorado last season and shot 86% from the line.
- Anthony Robinson II (Florida State): Averaged 1.6 steals and 3.0 assists at Missouri last season.
- AJ Swinton (Florida State): Played 15.8 minutes a game last season, but an undated listing tags him with a knee issue.
Numbers that matter
| FSU returning minutes | 6.3% | Florida State brings back almost none of last season's rotation, so its old team stats say little. |
|---|---|---|
| FSU adjusted net rank, last season | 67th | Last season's final opponent-adjusted rating, well ahead of Troy's 148th. |
| Troy opponent 3-point %, last season | 31.5% | Ranked 51st and counters a Florida State program that took half its shots from deep. |
| Troy offensive rebound %, last season | 35.1% | Ranked 54th, but Troy gives up size to a taller Florida State roster. |
Troy vs Florida State: quick answers
When is Troy vs Florida State?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.