Texas State vs UT Rio Grande Valley prediction: UTRGV starts over from zero against DJ Hall's Texas State
The Vaqueros bring back almost nothing from last season, while Texas State pairs a proven forward with a wave of transfers for its first Pac-12 season.
- Texas State's returning core and veteran transfers should shape this game early, while a rebuilt UTRGV roster learns itself in front of its own crowd.
- DJ Hall inside against a Vaqueros frontcourt led by Oregon transfer Devon Pryor, who played a small role last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. The number that matters most: UTRGV returns just 7.7% of last season's minutes.
A Vaqueros roster built from scratch
UTRGV went 19-14 last season with one of the sharper shooting teams in the country. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, ranked 30th of 365. Almost none of that team is left. Players on this season's roster accounted for 7.7% of last season's minutes and 4.1% of its points.
The departures read like a starting lineup. Marvin McGhee III shot 43.3% from three, and Koree Cotton, who averaged 13.9 points, is now at DePaul. Filip Brankovic left for High Point and Jaylen Washington for Western Michigan. The top returner is guard Always Wright, who averaged 2.9 points in 15.2 minutes a night. The school calls this the first season of a new era, and that is accurate. Last season's team numbers tell you almost nothing about the group that takes the floor in Edinburg.
Hall and the Bobcats' reinforcements
Texas State kept more of its team together. The Bobcats return 54.2% of last season's minutes, and the anchor is DJ Hall. He averaged 15.6 points and posted a 121.2 offensive rating last season, an efficient line for a forward who also handled a quarter of the team's possessions. Terrence Johnson is back as coach after a 19-13 season.
Around Hall, Johnson added scorers. Paul Djobet averaged 17.4 points at Omaha. Quel'Ron House scored 15.2 a game at Southern Illinois, and KJ Younger and Ronald Jessamy came over from UNC Greensboro and Cal State Bakersfield. Hall and Djobet both made the Pac-12 preseason impact list. Media still picked the Bobcats 8th in the league, so there is plenty to prove. But in November against a roster this new, experienced pieces count for a lot.
Texas State finally adds shooting
Last season's Bobcats almost never shot threes. Their 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from deep) ranked 364th of 365. That was a style choice built around Hall, but it also left them short on spacing.
The new guards change the math. Djobet hit 41.5% from three at Omaha, and Younger took 182 threes at UNC Greensboro. If Johnson lets them fire, Texas State becomes harder to pack in against Hall. Mark Drone is the swing piece in the backcourt: he is a returning starter, but he made only 28.4% of his threes last season.
Hands, glass and giveaways
Last season's Texas State defense made its living taking the ball. The Bobcats forced turnovers on 19.1% of opponent possessions, 70th nationally, and their steal rate ranked 31st. Kaden Gumbs, a returning starter, averaged 1.9 steals. They also crashed the offensive glass well, grabbing 34.4% of their own misses, 69th in the country.
That pressure lands on a UTRGV backcourt that has never played together. Jace Posey, billed as one of the two Power 4 transfers who will lead the team, averaged 4.6 points in 11.3 minutes at TCU. Pryor started 11 games at Oregon in 18.1 minutes a night. A Tyler Junior College group led by guard Caden Bell adds more new faces. The caution runs both ways: Texas State's own turnover rate ranked 290th last season, so this could be a sloppy game on both ends.
Home crowd, new league
The Vaqueros have a home crowd for an Orange Out night at UTRGV Fieldhouse, with tipoff at 6:30 PM local. They are also slightly bigger by minutes-weighted height, 77.0 inches to 76.2. Texas State arrives as a Pac-12 program in its first season in the league, carrying a bigger name than its preseason poll spot suggests. Neither team had reported injuries or eligibility issues as of Oct. 31.
What to watch - How often Texas State's guards shoot threes instead of feeding Hall - UTRGV's turnover count against the Bobcats' ball pressure - Whether Pryor and Posey can carry starter-level roles
Key players
- DJ Hall (Texas State): Averaged 15.6 points and 7.6 rebounds last season with a 121.2 offensive rating.
- Paul Djobet (Texas State): Scored 17.4 points a game at Omaha last season and shot 41.5% from three.
- KJ Younger (Texas State): Made 62 threes and averaged 15.1 points at UNC Greensboro last season.
- Kaden Gumbs (Texas State): Started all 32 games last season and averaged 1.9 steals.
- Devon Pryor (UT Rio Grande Valley): Started 11 of 16 games at Oregon last season in 18.1 minutes a night.
- Jace Posey (UT Rio Grande Valley): Averaged 4.6 points in 11.3 minutes at TCU last season.
- Always Wright (UT Rio Grande Valley): Made 12 starts last season and averaged 1.9 assists in 15.2 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| UTRGV returning minutes | 7.7% | Almost the entire rotation from last season's 19-14 team is gone. |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State returning minutes | 54.2% | Hall, Drone and Gumbs give the Bobcats a returning core. |
| Texas State 3PA rate rank, last season | 364th | The Bobcats barely shot threes last season, which transfers like Djobet and Younger could change. |
| Texas State forced turnover rate, last season | 19.1% | Ranked 70th nationally, a threat to a backcourt with no shared experience. |
| Texas State Pac-12 media poll | 8th | Modest league expectations despite the returning core. |
Texas State vs UT Rio Grande Valley: quick answers
When is Texas State vs UT Rio Grande Valley?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.