Texas Southern vs LSU prediction: LSU's courtroom roster opens against Johnny Jones's old Texas Southern team

A roster built in court

Will Wade's return to LSU starts with a question no scouting report can answer: who is eligible? Wade came back after one season at NC State, and the roster he assembled has spent October in front of judges. As of Oct. 13, the team website listed 10 players.

The headline names are Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark, both transfers from UCLA. Dent has won a court injunction and is on the roster, though the ruling could change on appeal. Clark's status is unsettled: one mid-October account had him cleared, while the more recent ones say he is still awaiting a final decision. A preliminary injunction hearing for both is set for Tuesday, Oct. 20, and should shape their status entering the season.

The rest of the picture is mixed. Wade said RJ Luis Jr. will not play for LSU. European signings Saliou Niang and Brice Dessert face eligibility doubts under an SEC rule on NBA draft withdrawal. Márcio Santos signed with Baskonia in Spain. The one clean result: Michael Ružić was cleared for 2026-27. LSU did beat UCF 85-81 in an exhibition on Oct. 14, so a working group exists. How big it is on Nov. 6 is the story.

What LSU actually brings back

Last season's LSU ratings say little about this team. The Tigers went 15-17 and return only 29.6% of last season's minutes and 22.9% of the points. The scorers are gone: Max Mackinnon averaged 15.6 points, and Mike Nwoko, who averaged 13.5, is now at Xavier.

The anchor who stayed is Pablo Tamba. The forward started all 32 games last season, pulling 7.2 rebounds a night and making 61.4% of his shots. He took few possessions, but his offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions used) of 129.3 was the best on the roster. Around him, Rashad King and PJ Carter return as bench guards who shot below 34% from three last season. If Dent and Clark play, they take over the backcourt. If not, this group has to carry more than it ever has.

Johnny Jones on the other bench

Texas Southern will look across the floor and see a familiar face. Johnny Jones coached the Tigers from 2018 to 2026 and is now an assistant on Wade's staff. Few coaches know Texas Southern's personnel and habits better, and that knowledge sits with the home team.

Texas Southern finished 12-18 last season, and its season ended with a SWAC quarterfinal loss to Alabama State. It was picked ninth in the SWAC preseason poll. By last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Texas Southern ranked 328th of 365 and LSU ranked 65th. LSU's roster churn shrinks that gap's meaning, but the talent difference between the SEC program and a lower-tier SWAC team is still real.

Where Texas Southern can make it messy

Texas Southern's best route is the free-throw line and tempo. Last season it played at 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 64th in the country, while LSU's 66.1 ranked 267th. Texas Southern also drew fouls, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) that ranked 76th.

The weaknesses cut the other way. Texas Southern turned the ball over on 19.0% of possessions, 313th nationally, but LSU's defense forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 331st, so those mistakes may not get punished. Texas Southern's defense also sent opponents to the line constantly, ranking 348th in opponent free throw rate. LSU lived there last season, ranking 43rd in free throw rate, though most of the players who drew those fouls are gone. Size favors LSU, too: its minutes-weighted average height is 78.1 inches to Texas Southern's 76.7.

What to watch

• The Oct. 20 hearing. Dent and Clark's status changes LSU's rotation more than anything Texas Southern does.
• Tamba on the glass. An undersized opponent gives LSU's most efficient returner room to work.
• Whistles. A Texas Southern defense that fouled heavily last season against a home team that hunts contact.
• The line. Tip is set for 7 p.m. CT on SECN+; no spread or total has been posted yet.