Stony Brook vs Northwestern prediction: Jack Karasinski leads Northwestern's rebuild into Stony Brook's three-point barrage
Northwestern returns barely a fifth of last season's minutes, so its season opener against a Stony Brook team that lived beyond the arc is a first real look at an almost entirely new team.
- Expect a slow, half-court game in which Northwestern's new frontcourt size tests a Stony Brook team that leans on volume three-point shooting.
- Karasinski, a 41.5% three-point shooter at Bellarmine last season, will be facing a Stony Brook defense for the first time.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had Northwestern 60th and Stony Brook 238th.
A roster built from scratch
Chris Collins enters his 14th season in Evanston with a team he is still introducing to its own fans. Players on this roster logged just 21.8% of Northwestern's minutes last season. Nick Martinelli, who carried the offense at 23.0 points per game, is gone, and Tre Singleton left for Iowa State.
The replacements come mostly from mid-major box scores. The roster holds 11 newcomers, six of them Division I transfers. The headliner is Jack Karasinski, a projected starter who scored 21.7 points per game at Bellarmine and shot 41.5% from three. He used nearly a third of his team's possessions there; the question is how much of that load translates to the Big Ten.
The first look was uneven. Northwestern opened its preseason with a 70-64 exhibition loss at Illinois State on Oct. 18. One preseason preview pegs the Wildcats near the bottom of the Big Ten but calls them a tough out.
Stony Brook lives behind the arc
Geno Ford's eighth Stony Brook team inherits an identity built on the three. Last season the Seawolves took 46.0% of their shots from deep, 49th-most in Division I, and made 34.9% of them.
They needed to. Inside the arc they shot just 48.8%, which ranked 310th, so their offense rose and fell with the perimeter. Northwestern's defense last season allowed opponents 33.4% from three, a middling 157th nationally, and that defense has since been largely replaced.
Stony Brook has turned over pieces too, adding transfers Jaden Daughtry, Morris Ugusuk and Kenny Fields along with freshmen Özgür Cengiz and Kasen Daeger. Last season's tendencies are a starting point, not a blueprint.
A slow game with a size edge
Neither team wanted to run last season. Northwestern played at 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 324th in the country, and Stony Brook sat at 66.8, ranked 223rd. Fewer possessions tend to give a lower-rated underdog a better chance to hang around, especially one that can catch fire from three.
Northwestern's counter is size. Its roster averages 79.2 inches, weighted by minutes, against Stony Brook's 77.6. Freshman center Szymon Ghai stands 7-3, and Luke McEldon arrives from Mount St. Mary's after finishing 64.5% of his shots there.
The soft spot to watch is the defensive glass. Last season Northwestern grabbed only 65.3% of available defensive rebounds, 344th nationally. Stony Brook wasn't much of an offensive rebounding team either, so a new frontcourt has a chance to clean that up early.
Who's available
Freshman Jayden Hodge was listed out with a knee designation on the report before the Illinois State exhibition. His status for the opener is unclear.
Collins said guard LA Pratt is still working back to form after missing most of last season. No injuries or suspensions have surfaced for Stony Brook.
Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. CT on B1G+.
Where the money is on Stony Brook vs Northwestern
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stony Brook: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Northwestern: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Key players
- Jack Karasinski (Northwestern): He averaged 21.7 points per game at Bellarmine last season while shooting 41.5% from three.
- Colin Smith (Northwestern): He started all 31 games at UC Santa Barbara last season and made 40.5% of his threes.
- Luke McEldon (Northwestern): He shot 64.5% from the field at Mount St. Mary's last season, though only 42.1% at the line.
- Jake West (Northwestern): One of the few holdovers, he shot 36.4% from three last season in 21.8 minutes a night.
Numbers that matter
| Northwestern returning minutes | 21.8% | The share of last season's minutes played by players on this roster, which makes last season's team stats a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook 3-point attempt rate, last season | 46.0% | The 49th-highest share of threes in Division I, the core of the Seawolves' offense. |
| Northwestern pace, last season | 64.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 324th nationally, pointing toward a slow game. |
| Northwestern defensive rebound rate, last season | 65.3% | Ranked 344th, the weakness the new frontcourt is meant to fix. |
Stony Brook vs Northwestern: quick answers
When is Stony Brook vs Northwestern?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Stony Brook vs Northwestern?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stony Brook: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Northwestern: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.