Stetson vs West Virginia prediction: Stetson's 3-point volume tests Ross Hodge's rebuilt West Virginia defense

A defense rebuilt from scratch

West Virginia's identity under Ross Hodge last season was simple: make the other team miserable. The Mountaineers finished 19th of 365 in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and gave up 65.7 points per game, 14th nationally. They held opponents to 46.7% inside the arc, 29th in the country.

The catch is who's left to run it. West Virginia has 12 new players this season, and Honor Huff, Chance Moore and Treysen Eaglestaff are gone. Last season's team numbers describe Hodge's system more than this roster, so read them as a statement of intent. Hodge enters his second season with a program that hasn't reached the NCAA Tournament since 2023, though last season ended with a College Basketball Crown title.

Stetson lives behind the arc

The Hatters' best weapon last season was volume shooting that went in. Stetson took 45.1% of its shots from three (67th most) and hit 36.3% of them. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes at 1.5 times their value, was 53.8%, 85th nationally, and it assisted on 59.3% of made baskets, 41st.

That's the matchup to watch. West Virginia's 3-point defense was ordinary last season: opponents shot 34.3% from deep, 229th. If a new perimeter group hasn't learned Hodge's rotations yet, Stetson's ball movement is the most direct route to keeping this close.

An inviting interior for Sylla

The other end looks far less friendly to the visitors. Stetson let opponents make 56.8% of their twos last season, 351st of 365, and blocked just 5.8% of opponent two-point tries, also 351st. Its adjusted defense ranked 330th.

That sets up Mouhamed Sylla, the center who arrived from Georgia Tech. West Virginia didn't shoot well from deep last season at 33.1%, 239th, so a Stetson defense with no rim protection gives the Mountaineers an easy way to play inside-out. Both teams were poor at the line, with West Virginia at 68.3% and Stetson at 68.1%, which could matter only if this tightens late.

Tempo, travel and a long week

West Virginia played at 63.8 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 347th, one of the slowest paces in the country. Stetson sat near the middle at 68.1. Expect the home team to dictate, which squeezes the number of possessions the Hatters get to make their shooting count.

The schedule adds weight. Stetson opens at Clemson on Nov. 2 and plays at South Carolina on Nov. 3 before reaching Morgantown, part of a slate the program built around six power-conference matchups. Donnie Jones, now in his eighth season and the coach who took Stetson to its first NCAA Tournament in 2023-24, is coming off a 12-21 year. WVU's schedule lists a 7 p.m. tip; other listings still show the time as undetermined.

Who's available

Guard Amir Jenkins is out after two offseason shoulder surgeries and had no return date as of Oct. 16. Joson Sanon, the transfer from St. John's, reportedly hurt his thigh in the Oct. 18 exhibition at Maryland; no severity or timeline has surfaced. Sylla was a full participant in practice after a minor finger injury as of Oct. 14. Forward Brenen Lorient is back after a court ruling granted Class of 2026 seniors another year, and Hodge's plans include him "until further notice." No Stetson injury or eligibility news has surfaced.

• Whether Sanon is cleared after the Maryland exhibition
• How often Stetson gets clean looks from three
• West Virginia's touches for Sylla in the post