St. Thomas-Minnesota vs Minnesota prediction: St. Thomas carries the nation's best 2-point shooting into the Barn

A century-old series wakes up

The last time these two programs shared a floor, the Great Depression was still on. Friday, Nov. 6 at Williams Arena marks the first meeting in nearly 100 years, and Minnesota holds a 6-1 edge in the series. The Tommies' only win came in 1933.

This St. Thomas team arrives with real credentials. It went 24-10 last season and was picked 2nd in the Summit League preseason poll, with Kendall Blue, Carter Bjerke and Austin Herro all named to the preseason all-league first team. The question is whether an offense that dominated mid-major schedules can do the same inside a Big Ten building.

The Tommies' shotmaking problem

St. Thomas was one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country last season. Its effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) was 58.8%, 7th of 365. Inside the arc it was even better: the Tommies made 62.8% of their 2-pointers, the best rate in Division I.

Minnesota's defense struggled with exactly that last season. Opponents posted a 51.9% effective field goal mark against the Gophers, 240th nationally. That defense has been reshuffled, with transfers arriving from Michigan, North Carolina, Villanova and Texas Tech, so last year's number is a rough guide. Still, if the Tommies get their usual looks, they can keep this close.

Two sets of ratings disagree

Last season's raw numbers flatter St. Thomas. The Tommies ranked 32nd in net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions), while Minnesota finished 15-18.

Adjust for opponents and the picture flips. In last season's final adjusted ratings, which weigh who each team played, Minnesota ranked 77th in net efficiency and St. Thomas 106th. That gap is schedule strength: Big Ten nights against Summit League ones. It's also the cleanest available read on this game until a line appears.

Few second chances, slow clock

Neither team chased offensive rebounds last season. St. Thomas ranked 358th in offensive rebound rate and Minnesota 321st. The Tommies made up for it by finishing defensive possessions, ranking 26th in defensive rebound rate, and by protecting the ball, with a 14.0% turnover rate that was 21st nationally. Expect most trips to end with one shot.

Tempo is where Minnesota sets the terms. Niko Medved's first Gophers team played at 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 361st of 365, while St. Thomas ran at a quicker 84th-ranked clip. Minnesota also led the country in assist rate at 71.0%, a sign of how patiently it hunts for a good shot.

One late-game note: the Tommies made just 68.0% of their free throws last season, 325th nationally.

Minnesota's rebuilt roster

The Gophers return 60.5% of last season's minutes but lose their top scorer. Cade Tyson averaged 19.6 points last season and sat out the Oct. 15 exhibition while awaiting a decision in a federal eligibility court case; whether he plays this season is unsettled.

New point guard Kyan Evans, a North Carolina transfer, had been out with a hamstring injury but played in that Oct. 15 exhibition, a 72-52 win over Omaha in which Minnesota made 12 threes. Medved said Evans looked more like the player he knows. Freshman forward Chadrack Mpoyi sat in street clothes while the NCAA settles his initial eligibility; Medved said nothing is wrong physically. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson added 10 points against Omaha and appears healthy.

Nothing has surfaced on St. Thomas injuries or eligibility.