St. Mary's (MD) vs Longwood prediction: Longwood's rebuilt backcourt gets a first run against Division III St. Mary's
With barely a quarter of last season's minutes back, Ronnie Thomas uses a Nov. 10 home opener to find out what his transfer-heavy guard group looks like together.
- Longwood is at home against a visitor we hold no data on; the real story is how a largely new rotation fits together in its first live action.
- Watch transfer guards MJ Williams and TJ Robinson share the ball with returners Alphonzo Billups III and Jaylen Benard.
- No spread or total has been posted; Longwood returns only 26.7% of last season's minutes, so last year's numbers are a loose guide.
A new roster in Farmville
Longwood finished last season 16-16, and its last game was an 85-82 overtime loss to UNC Asheville in the Big South tournament on March 6. Little of that team remains. Players on this roster accounted for just 26.7% of last season's minutes and 23.3% of its points. Ronnie Thomas begins his second year in charge, and the Nov. 10 home date with St. Mary's (MD) gives him an early look at the new group. We hold no data on St. Mary's (MD), and the opponent's identity has not been confirmed.
The biggest holes come from forward Elijah Tucker, who scored 12.5 points per game last season, and guard Jacoi Hutchinson, who averaged 12.3 before leaving for Troy.
Guards carry the load
The replacements are mostly guards. MJ Williams arrives from Eastern Kentucky after averaging 10.0 points and 4.2 assists last season, giving Longwood a natural lead guard. TJ Robinson comes from Saint Peter's with a heavy offensive role behind him: a 29.3% usage rate, meaning he finished that share of possessions while on the floor.
They join Alphonzo Billups III, who started 18 games last season, and Jaylen Benard, a reserve who played 19.8 minutes a night. Neither transfer shot it well from deep last season, so spacing is worth watching.
Whether the identity survives
Last season's Lancers won with pressure and effort. They forced turnovers on 21.2% of opponent possessions, 13th of 365 teams, and grabbed 35.3% of their own misses, 47th nationally. The weaknesses were just as clear: they gave the ball away on 19.9% of possessions, 341st, and made only 31.5% of their threes, 313th.
Against a Division III opponent, Longwood should be able to force turnovers. The more useful sign is whether the new guards cut down on giveaways and find better shots from outside.
Key players
- MJ Williams (Longwood): Averaged 10.0 points and 4.2 assists at Eastern Kentucky last season, the most assists of any Lancer listed.
- TJ Robinson (Longwood): Scored 9.6 points per game last season on a 29.3% usage rate, though his effective field goal percentage was 41.3%.
- Alphonzo Billups III (Longwood): The top returner averaged 8.1 points and 1.5 steals last season while hitting 33.6% from three.
- Jaylen Benard (Longwood): Came off the bench for 7.3 points per game last season without making a start.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes | 26.7% | Longwood brings back barely a quarter of last season's minutes, so last year's team stats describe a different group. |
|---|---|---|
| Forced turnover rate, last season | 21.2% | Ranked 13th nationally, the clearest strength of the 2025-26 Lancers. |
| Own turnover rate, last season | 19.9% | Ranked 341st of 365, the main weakness the new guards need to fix. |
| 3-point %, last season | 31.5% | Ranked 313th nationally, so outside shooting is an open question for the rebuilt rotation. |
St. Mary's (MD) vs Longwood: quick answers
When is St. Mary's (MD) vs Longwood?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.