Southern vs TCU prediction: Southern's steal-happy defense tests Brock Harding and a reshuffled TCU

Where Southern can steal this

The ratings say this game shouldn't be close. TCU finished last season 49th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and Southern finished 286th. The Jaguars' best equalizer is the one thing they did at a national level: take the ball away.

Southern forced turnovers on 20.2% of opponent possessions last season, 38th in Division I, and its steal rate ranked 21st. Those are live-ball turnovers, the kind that become layups before a defense is set. TCU was middling with the ball, giving it away on 16.0% of its possessions (127th).

That puts the spotlight on Brock Harding. He is back for one more season after starting all 35 games at point guard, and he averaged 5.5 assists. His shooting is the worry: he made 28.4% of his threes. If Southern sags off him and jumps passing lanes, Dixon's offense can stall.

A TCU rotation half rebuilt

TCU returns players who accounted for 74.3% of last season's minutes, but the roster count tells a busier story: five returners and 10 newcomers. The two biggest losses are David Punch, now at Texas, and Liutauras Lelevicius, now at Clemson. Punch was the team's leading scorer at 14.1 points and its shot-blocker at 1.9 per game.

Xavier Edmonds becomes the likely focal point inside. He scored 12.7 points a game with a 61.4% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times), the most efficient line among the returners. Micah Robinson and Jayden Pierre add wing scoring, and Tanner Toolson is also back.

The new names include transfers Ryan Hunt, Trent Lincoln and Miloš Šojić, plus Gavin Sykes, who was Big West Freshman of the Year at Long Beach State. Sykes scored 17 off the bench in an 89-76 exhibition win over Wyoming at Midland College. TCU opens against Lindenwood on Nov. 2, four days before this game.

Tempo and the free-throw line

Southern wants a track meet. The Jaguars ranked 29th of 365 in pace last season, while TCU sat 240th at 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes. More possessions mean more chances for Southern's turnover hunting, but also more trips for a deeper TCU roster to pull away.

Fouls are the other swing factor. Southern drew free throws at a healthy clip, ranking 62nd in free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt). The Jaguars also sent opponents to the line constantly, 324th in opponent free throw rate. TCU, which ranked 103rd at getting to the line, could feast there. Neither team converted well: Southern shot 69.8% and TCU 70.4%.

What we know about Southern

Very little about this season's Jaguars has surfaced. Kevin Johnson is in his fourth season, and the program went 17-17 last season and reached the SWAC Tournament final. No 2026-27 roster has been published, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide to who takes the floor.

This is the front end of a demanding nonconference slate that later sends Southern to Nebraska on Nov. 25 and Vanderbilt on Nov. 27. The last meeting in Fort Worth, the 2023 opener, went to TCU 108-75. The school lists a 7 p.m. tip on ESPN+, though some schedules still show the time as TBD.