Southern Miss vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State's remade, ball-hawking roster opens Hilton against turnover-prone Southern Miss
The Cyclones lost their two leading scorers and return about half of last season's minutes, but a Southern Miss team that gave the ball away constantly last season gets a hard first look at Iowa State's pressure.
- Expect Iowa State's pressure to drive the game shape, with Southern Miss trying to survive by attacking the rim and earning free throws.
- Southern Miss ball security against an Iowa State defense that forced turnovers at the fifth-highest rate in Division I last season.
- No spread or total posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings ranked Iowa State 7th and Southern Miss 221st.
A new cast in Ames
Iowa State's home opener doubles as a first real look at a rebuilt team. Players on this season's roster accounted for 53.1% of last season's minutes and 49.5% of its points. The biggest losses sting: Milan Momcilovic, who shot 48.4% from three, is now at Kentucky, and Joshua Jefferson took his 16.4 points per game with him.
The replacements come from the transfer market. Ryan Prather Jr. posted a 134.2 offensive rating at Robert Morris, a measure of points produced per 100 possessions. Jaquan Johnson carried a heavy load at Bradley. Both Johnson and Tre Singleton scored in double figures in the Oct. 18 exhibition, an 83-80 loss to Creighton in which Iowa State trailed by 19 in the second half before rallying. Prather has returned to practice after sports hernia surgery, but his game status hasn't been confirmed.
The largest variable is Tamin Lipsey. A September court injunction cleared his fifth season, and he sat out the Creighton exhibition by design. T.J. Otzelberger said Lipsey has practiced with the first group and that he hopes to play him Oct. 25 at Northwestern, while warning that the ongoing NCAA litigation could make his availability on-again, off-again.
Where possessions get lost
This is the matchup that should tilt the game. Last season Southern Miss turned the ball over on 19.1% of its possessions, which ranked 324th of 365. Iowa State's defense lived on exactly that weakness, forcing turnovers on 22.7% of opponent possessions, fifth in the country, with a steal rate that ranked 12th.
The pressure should carry over even with the roster churn. Lipsey averaged 2.3 steals last season, and Johnson averaged 2.5 at Bradley. If the Golden Eagles can't get into their offense cleanly, the Cyclones get a steady supply of transition chances, and that is where a team still learning each other can look sharpest.
Southern Miss lives at the line
Southern Miss built its offense on contact rather than jump shots last season. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranked 17th nationally. The Golden Eagles took threes on just 29.8% of their shots and made only 30.0% of them, 348th in Division I.
That plan runs into a disciplined defense. Iowa State's opponents earned free throws at a rate that ranked 39th-best last season. Size is the visitors' best hope of changing that. Southern Miss's minutes-weighted average height is 78.0 inches against Iowa State's 76.5, and 6-foot-9 transfer Cameron Wallace adds bulk inside. The Cyclones have their own soft spot at the stripe, where their 67.5% shooting ranked 337th.
Buy game, home opener
Southern Miss treats this as a buy game and a big road test under Jay Ladner. The gap in last season's final adjusted net efficiency, points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, explains why: Iowa State ranked 7th, Southern Miss 221st. Big 12 coaches picked the Cyclones fourth in the preseason poll.
The visitors do bring a headliner. Isaac Taveras was named Blue Ribbon's Sun Belt preseason player of the year and scored 11 in the Oct. 13 intrasquad scrimmage, where Brewer Carruth led everyone with 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting.
No line has been posted. Tip is Friday night on ESPN+, with listings split between 7 and 8 p.m. ET.
Where the money is on Southern Miss vs Iowa State
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Miss: 50% of bets, 3% of the money; Iowa State: 50% of bets, 97% of the money.
Key players
- Tamin Lipsey (Iowa State): The lone Cyclone on the preseason all-Big 12 team averaged 13.5 points and 5.1 assists last season, though his availability hinges on ongoing litigation.
- Ryan Prather Jr. (Iowa State): He averaged 15.9 points and shot 37.5% from three at Robert Morris last season, and is back practicing after sports hernia surgery.
- Jaquan Johnson (Iowa State): He scored 16.9 points per game with a 28% usage rate at Bradley last season and reached double figures in the Creighton exhibition.
- Blake Buchanan (Iowa State): The returning frontcourt starter shot 63.6% from the field last season but just 49.4% at the line.
- Isaac Taveras (Southern Miss): He scored 11 points in the Oct. 13 Black-Gold scrimmage.
- Brewer Carruth (Southern Miss): He posted a game-high 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting in the Oct. 13 scrimmage.
Numbers that matter
| Southern Miss turnover rate, last season | 19.1% | It ranked 324th of 365, a soft spot against Iowa State's pressure. |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa State forced turnover rate, last season | 22.7% | Fifth in Division I, the defensive identity the Cyclones bring into a new season. |
| Southern Miss free throw rate, last season | 42.9% | It ranked 17th nationally and is the visitors' clearest path to points. |
| Iowa State returning minutes | 53.1% | About half of last season's rotation is back, so last season's team numbers are only a partial guide. |
| Adjusted net efficiency rank, last season's final | 7th | Iowa State's mark, against Southern Miss's 221st. |
Southern Miss vs Iowa State: quick answers
When is Southern Miss vs Iowa State?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Southern Miss vs Iowa State?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Miss: 50% of bets, 3% of the money; Iowa State: 50% of bets, 97% of the money.