Southern Illinois vs Kansas City prediction: Southern Illinois' defense tests Mark Turgeon's first Kansas City team
The Salukis guarded as well as almost anyone last season, and Kansas City's new coach inherits an offense that struggled to score on anybody.
- Expect a grind built on Southern Illinois' defense, with Kansas City's new staff trying to prove last season's 4-27 record is history.
- Watch Southern Illinois' perimeter defense, which held opponents to 30.2% from three last season, against a Kansas City offense that rarely shot well.
- No spread or total is posted yet. No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings put Southern Illinois 112th and Kansas City 356th.
A new coach inherits the bottom
Kansas City hired Mark Turgeon on Feb. 1, 2026, after deciding not to retain Menzies, and the job he took over was about as deep a rebuild as Division I offers. The Roos went 4-27 last season. By adjusted net efficiency, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, they finished 356th of 365.
The Summit League's preseason poll put the Roos eighth, and Jaylen Smith made the all-preseason second team. A coaching change of this size makes last season's team numbers a shaky guide for Kansas City. They describe what Turgeon is trying to fix, not necessarily what he'll put on the floor in Kansas City. The game is set for Friday, Nov. 6, with the tip time still to be announced.
The Salukis' defense travels
Southern Illinois was built on defense in Scott Nagy's first season, and he enters his second with that identity intact on the stat sheet. The Salukis allowed 98.7 points per 100 possessions last season, 16th in the country. Their adjusted defense, which accounts for schedule, ranked 34th.
The sharpest edge was on the perimeter. Opponents shot 30.2% from three against them, also 16th nationally. That's a hard matchup for a Kansas City offense that posted a 46.8% effective field goal percentage last season, a measure that counts made threes as 1.5 field goals. That figure ranked 349th. If the Roos haven't found shooters, points will be scarce.
Southern Illinois can't shoot either
The Salukis' problem lives at the other end. They made 27.8% of their threes last season, 364th of 365 teams, and they seemed to know it: their 3-point attempt rate ranked 355th, meaning almost nobody took a smaller share of shots from deep.
Kansas City's defense gives them a chance to break that pattern. The Roos allowed opponents 36.5% from three, 343rd nationally, and 55.8% inside the arc, 337th. Whether Southern Illinois' offense looks competent in early November depends less on its own shooting habits than on how much Turgeon has tightened a defense that gave up shots everywhere.
Second chances and a lopsided history
Kansas City's worst habit last season may have been on the defensive glass. The Roos grabbed 65.0% of opponents' misses, 350th in the country. Southern Illinois was a middling offensive rebounding team, rebounding 31.2% of its own misses for a 182nd ranking, but a team that misses as many threes as the Salukis do needs those extra possessions.
The last meeting showed how lopsided this matchup can get. On Nov. 7, 2025, in Carbondale, Southern Illinois won 101-78, the Salukis' first triple-digit game since 2023. This rematch moves to Kansas City's floor with a different coach on the home bench, and that is the open question oddsmakers will have to price when a line appears.
Numbers that matter
| SIU defensive efficiency, last season | 16th | Southern Illinois allowed 98.7 points per 100 possessions, one of the best marks in the country. |
|---|---|---|
| SIU 3-point %, last season | 27.8% | Ranked 364th of 365, the main reason the Salukis' offense finished 315th in efficiency. |
| Kansas City opponent 3-point %, last season | 36.5% | Ranked 343rd, a soft spot that could let Southern Illinois' shooters find a rhythm. |
| Kansas City defensive rebound %, last season | 65.0% | Ranked 350th, which handed opponents extra possessions. |
| Last meeting | 101-78 | Southern Illinois' win in Carbondale on Nov. 7, 2025, before Kansas City changed coaches. |
Southern Illinois vs Kansas City: quick answers
When is Southern Illinois vs Kansas City?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.