Siena vs Dayton prediction: Siena's freshman-heavy reboot runs into Dayton's turnover-hunting defense
Both programs rebuilt from scratch, but Dayton's veteran transfers and a defense that lived on steals last season give the Flyers the cleaner head start against Siena's newcomers.
- Dayton's experienced transfers and home floor should let the Flyers set the terms, with Siena's freshmen tested early by ball pressure.
- Siena's new backcourt, led by VMI transfer Tan Yildizoglu, against a Dayton defense that forced turnovers at the 17th-highest rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings had Dayton 69th and Siena 175th.
A familiar floor, unfamiliar faces
UD Arena has been kind to Siena. The Saints won NCAA tournament games there in 2002, 81-77 over Alcorn State, and in 2009, 74-72 in double overtime over Ohio State. Almost nobody from those teams, or from last spring, will recognize this group.
Gerry McNamara left for Syracuse, and guard Gavin Doty and forward Francis Folefac followed him there. New coach Nevada Smith, a longtime Shaka Smart assistant at Texas and Marquette, inherits five letterwinners and 11 newcomers: three transfers and eight freshmen. Players on this roster logged just 21.6% of Siena's minutes last season. Dayton is barely more settled, at 24.5%, but Anthony Grant is entering his 10th season and rebuilt around six transfers and three freshmen.
Freshmen against ball pressure
This is where the game likely tilts. Last season Dayton forced turnovers at a rate of 21.0 per 100 possessions, 17th in Division I, and ranked 35th in steal rate. That defense finished 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).
Siena's ball handlers are new. Yildizoglu ran the offense at VMI, averaging 4.6 assists, but also posted a 45.4% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times). Behind him is a freshman class that already announced itself: Tim Ibukunoluwa had 23 points and 14 rebounds and Trent Egbiremolen scored 19 in an 81-76 exhibition loss to Syracuse. Scoring isn't the question for those freshmen. Taking care of the ball on the road against a defense built to take it away is.
Dayton gets to the line
Dayton's offense was ordinary from the field last season but elite at drawing contact. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 46.2% ranked 2nd nationally. Siena's defense was disciplined under McNamara, allowing a free throw rate that ranked 31st, though a new staff and a new roster make that a weak guide now.
The Flyers also carry more size. Their minutes-weighted average height is 79.0 inches against Siena's 77.6. Grant Randall, a Quinnipiac transfer who averaged 6.6 rebounds, and returning forward Amael L'Etang give Dayton bodies to attack the rim and finish through contact.
Shooting and tempo in flux
Last season's Siena played at the 363rd-fastest pace in the country and shot 30.6% from three, 334th. Smith may change both. Returning forward Brendan Coyle hit 30% from deep on 237 attempts, so Siena needs its freshmen to supply the spacing.
Dayton imported shooting. Marshall transfer Landen Joseph made 41.3% of his threes, and Ole Miss transfer Travis Perry made 48 of them last season. Paired with L'Etang's 36.1%, the Flyers have more proven perimeter options than Siena does.
Availability heading into tipoff
Forward Jalen Haynes, a transfer coming back from a second knee surgery in May, had not practiced as of Oct. 24 and missed the Notre Dame exhibition. Treat him as unlikely until Dayton says otherwise. Jaiun Simon missed that 75-65 exhibition win over Notre Dame with a concussion but said Oct. Randall, listed with an undisclosed issue, was in uniform ahead of the Oct. 24 Morehead State exhibition.
For Siena, forward Steger was reported on crutches after dressing but not playing against Syracuse. We could not find a further update on his status.
Key players
- Amael L'Etang (Dayton): Dayton's top returner averaged 11.9 points and shot 36.1% from three last season.
- Grant Randall (Dayton): Posted a 124.9 offensive rating with 11.3 points per game at Quinnipiac last season.
- Landen Joseph (Dayton): Shot 41.3% from three at Marshall last season, the best mark among Dayton's newcomers.
- Jaiun Simon (Dayton): Shot 38.2% from three in 18.3 minutes a night last season before a preseason concussion.
- Tan Yildizoglu (Siena): Averaged 10.2 points and 4.6 assists in 31 starts at VMI last season.
- Brendan Coyle (Siena): Started all 35 games last season, averaging 8.7 points in 30.5 minutes.
- Tim Ibukunoluwa (Siena): Had 23 points and 14 rebounds in the exhibition against Syracuse.
- Trent Egbiremolen (Siena): Scored 19 points in the 81-76 exhibition loss to Syracuse.
Numbers that matter
| Dayton forced turnover rate, last season | 21.0 | Ranked 17th nationally, a direct threat to Siena's freshman-heavy backcourt. |
|---|---|---|
| Dayton free throw rate, last season | 46.2% | Ranked 2nd in Division I, the Flyers' most reliable offensive weapon. |
| Siena returning minutes | 21.6% | Makes last season's Siena numbers a weak guide under a new coach. |
| Dayton adjusted defense, last season | 29th | The Flyers' defensive identity carried them, while the offense ranked 131st adjusted. |
| Siena 3-point %, last season | 30.6% | Ranked 334th; the new roster has to find shooting elsewhere. |
Siena vs Dayton: quick answers
When is Siena vs Dayton?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.