SE Louisiana vs Ole Miss prediction: SE Louisiana rebuilt nearly everything except its missing jump shot

A new roster, an old problem

Southeastern Louisiana's roster turnover is close to total. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 2.7% of last season's minutes. That makes last season's 9-22 record a weak guide to who these Lions are.

The one inheritance worth worrying about is the shooting. Last season's Lions made 28.3% of their threes, 362nd in Division I. Coach David Kiefer, in his eighth season, went to the portal for help, adding Ashley Sims II, Quincy Allen and Gio Sanford from Bryant. Those transfers don't promise a fix. Allen shot 26.9% from deep at Bryant, and Sims made just 17.9%.

The exception is Army transfer Jackson Furman, who made 60 threes at a 34.7% clip. If the Lions are going to pull an SEC defense away from the paint, it likely runs through him. Allen brings a different skill: 1.6 blocks per game at Bryant, the closest thing this roster has to proven rim protection.

Ole Miss reloads around shooters

Chris Beard rebuilt too, just less drastically. Returners account for 29.7% of last season's minutes, and nine newcomers joined a team that went 15-20 and was picked 13th in the SEC this preseason.

The headliner is Corey Stephenson, who averaged 18.0 points at Florida International while making 39.5% of his threes. He joins returner Patton Pinkins, who hit 42.6% from deep last season. Ilias Kamardine, who started all 35 games last season, is back in the backcourt, and Seton Hall transfer Adam Clark adds a second ball handler.

Stephenson's status carries an asterisk. The September roster announcement said some veterans' eligibility, including his and Micah Handlogten's, depends on lawsuits over the NCAA's age-based eligibility model not changing. In mid-October Beard was described as confident in the outlook for both. Nothing newer has surfaced, so the situation remains unsettled.

The Rebels split two exhibitions, losing to Alabama and beating UAB 92-78, and open the regular season against Alcorn State before this one.

Where the Lions can steal possessions

Turnovers were the best part of last season's SE Louisiana defense. The Lions forced turnovers on 19.4% of opponent possessions, 55th nationally. Ole Miss protected the ball well, turning it over on just 14.1% of trips, 23rd in the country.

Both of those ranks come from last season, and with so much roster turnover the clash is less certain than the ranks suggest. Still, a disruptive defense is the most realistic path for an underdog to shorten an SEC game.

The free-throw line is a second pressure point. Ole Miss's defense sent opponents to the line often last season, with an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 41.2%. The Lions got there plenty but cashed in poorly, making only 68.4% of their attempts.

A long road for the Lions

This game sits in a brutal opening stretch for SE Louisiana: eight straight games away from home, with three SEC opponents in the first four. The Lions open at Auburn, come to Oxford next, and then visit Texas A&M.

The last meeting was lopsided, an 88-58 Ole Miss win in Oxford in November 2025, though almost nobody from that Lions team remains. Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure efficiency per 100 possessions and account for opponents, put Ole Miss at 11.4, 75th nationally. SE Louisiana finished at -11, 283rd. Those numbers describe two very different rosters, but the size of the gap, plus a home crowd, points to Ole Miss as the stronger side.