Queens University vs Loyola Marymount prediction: Queens brings its NCAA tournament offense to LMU's home opener
Last season, Queens scored like a top-40 offense and defended like a bottom-15 one, and Loyola Marymount's interior defense is the first test of which half shows up.
- Expect a game decided by whether Queens' efficient shooting survives the road; its defense was too porous last season to win a grind.
- Watch Queens' two-point finishing against an LMU defense that held opponents to 47.1% inside the arc last season, 31st nationally.
- No spread or total has been posted. Queens played at 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 64th nationally, the pace marker to watch.
Queens can score with anyone
Queens is coming off its first NCAA Division I tournament trip, earned by winning the ASUN tournament, and Grant Leonard got a contract extension for it. The engine was an offense that scored 119.6 points per 100 possessions last season, 39th of 365 Division I teams.
The Royals did it from everywhere. Their effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) ranked 16th, and they made 59.1% of their twos, 15th nationally. They also hunted threes, ranking 36th in the share of shots taken from deep.
LMU's defense is built to blunt exactly the interior part of that. Last season the Lions held opponents to 47.1% on twos, 31st nationally, and to a 48.5% effective field goal mark, 59th. If LMU walls off the paint, Queens has to win from the perimeter on the road in November. That is the central question of the night.
The other end is the worry
Queens' defense was as bad as its offense was good. The Royals allowed 118.0 points per 100 possessions last season, 351st of 365, and ranked 328th in defensive rebound percentage, the share of opponents' misses they collected.
LMU is poorly built to punish that. The Lions ranked 302nd in offensive rebound rate last season and 254th in offensive efficiency, so second chances and easy points were never their identity. Their best opening may be the foul line: Queens ranked 278th in opponent free throw rate (free throws allowed relative to field goal attempts), but LMU ranked 270th in getting there, and made just 70.4% once it did.
The pace leans Queens' way. The Royals played faster last season, at 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes against LMU's 68.2. More possessions mean more chances for the better offense to pull away.
A home opener after a late fade
This is LMU's regular-season opener at Gersten Pavilion under seventh-year coach Stan Johnson, with tip at 7 p.m. local time. The Lions' first exhibition, against Cal, ended badly. LMU led by 10 points with less than 8 minutes left, and Cal came back to win on a Nojus Indrusaitis three. A second exhibition, against UCSB on Oct. 25, is still to come.
These are last season's numbers on last season's rosters. Queens went 21-14 and LMU 15-17, and neither program's returning core is clear yet, so the early box scores will matter more than the old ratings. No injury or eligibility news has surfaced for either team as of Oct. 17.
What to watch
- Queens' three-point volume: if LMU takes away the rim, how often the Royals settle for threes, and whether those threes fall.
- LMU's late-game execution: the Cal collapse is the freshest evidence of how this group closes.
- The glass at the Queens end: LMU's offensive rebounding was weak, but Queens' defensive rebounding was weaker.
Where the money is on Queens University vs Loyola Marymount
On the Kalshi moneyline: Queens University: 20% of bets, 21% of the money; Loyola Marymount: 80% of bets, 79% of the money.
Numbers that matter
| Queens offensive efficiency, last season | 119.6 | Points per 100 possessions, 39th of 365, the foundation of an NCAA tournament team. |
|---|---|---|
| Queens defensive efficiency, last season | 118.0 | Points allowed per 100 possessions ranked 351st, so Queens rarely won by getting stops. |
| LMU opponent 2-point %, last season | 47.1% | Ranked 31st, the direct counter to a Queens offense that ranked 15th on twos. |
| Queens effective FG%, last season | 56.6% | Ranked 16th nationally, the shooting LMU's defense has to dent. |
| LMU offensive rebound %, last season | 27.1% | Ranked 302nd, which limits LMU's ability to exploit Queens' weak defensive rebounding. |
Queens University vs Loyola Marymount: quick answers
When is Queens University vs Loyola Marymount?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is the money on Queens University vs Loyola Marymount?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Queens University: 20% of bets, 21% of the money; Loyola Marymount: 80% of bets, 79% of the money.