Radford vs California prediction: Cal's rebuilt roster gets its first test against Radford's fast pace

Cal starts almost from scratch

California went 22-12 last season and reached the second round of the NIT. Very little of that team remains. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 20.5% of last season's minutes and 14.9% of its points, and the program describes the group as nine returners and nine newcomers.

The departures took the scoring. Dai Dai Ames, who averaged 16.9 points, is now at Tennessee, and Justin Pippen is at Ohio State. John Camden and Chris Bell, two of the team's best perimeter shooters, are gone too. Any stat from Cal's 2025-26 profile describes a different team, so this game is mostly about the new pieces.

The transfers who carry Cal

The likely lead scorer is Michael Cooper, who averaged 13.4 points at Wright State while finishing a quarter of his team's possessions. Nojus Indrusaitis gives Cal a shooter: he hit 38.7% from three at Pittsburgh last season. Jordan Ross started 25 games at Georgia and posted an offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions used) of 121.5, which suggests a low-mistake guard.

The one proven returner sits inside. Lee Dort averaged 7.8 rebounds and shot almost 60% from the floor in 26 starts, and he and Ross represented the program at ACC Media Day. How fast the guards connect with Dort decides whether Cal's offense looks organized in early November.

Radford wants a fast game

Radford played fast last season. Its pace of 71.7 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 24th in Division I, and it took 45.5% of its shots from three. The defense created chaos: its forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) of 19.1% ranked 71st.

That is the pressure point for Cal. Last season's Bears protected the ball well, with a 14.9% turnover rate that ranked 53rd, but the guards who ran that offense have left. A backcourt still learning each other's habits is exactly what a gambling defense hopes to see.

Radford has its own turnover to sort out under second-year coach Zach Chu. Del Jones transferred to Seton Hall and Dennis Parker Jr. left for Kansas. Jaylon Johnson, last season's leading guard, does not appear on the listed roster, though his departure hasn't been confirmed.

The glass and the line

Radford's weakness last season was finishing defensive possessions. Its defensive rebound rate of 68.5% ranked 261st, so opponents got plenty of second shots. Cal hardly chased those chances: its offensive rebound rate of 26.5% ranked 332nd. Dort is the returner who could change that.

Radford also got to the foul line often, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 40.1% that ranked 55th. It made only 70.6% of those attempts, though. Cal shot 78.0% at the line, 17th in the country, but most of that shooting left with the departed players.

Schedule and sideline

This is the first of four power-conference opponents on Radford's schedule. The Highlanders open at San Francisco on Nov. 2, come to Berkeley days later, and visit Tennessee on Nov. 9, where they will see Ames again. Radford's site lists a 9 p.m. ET tip. Other schedules still show the time as TBA.

Mark Madsen was recovering from knee surgery at ACC Media Day, which he attended virtually. No Cal players were listed as injured as of Oct. 15, though that is unconfirmed. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put Cal at 11.9 and 73rd nationally. It put Radford, which finished 16-16, at -8.6 and 259th. Those numbers set the baseline, but Cal's roster turnover means they don't settle much.