Presbyterian vs NC State prediction: Justin Gainey's transfer-built Wolfpack faces Presbyterian's paint-first attack
NC State brings back barely a quarter of last season's minutes, and a Big South team that almost never shoots threes gets an early look at the new pieces.
- NC State's talent edge should show at home, but a new roster under a first-year coach may take time to look organized.
- Presbyterian's two-point attack will run into Kyle Evans, who blocked 3.2 shots per game at UC Irvine last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings put NC State 34th and Presbyterian 263rd.
A new Wolfpack, mostly strangers
The most important fact about NC State this November is how little of it is left. Players on this roster logged just 28.1% of last season's minutes. Justin Gainey, introduced in early April after Will Wade's tenure, is coaching his first season, and he rebuilt through the portal with Preston Edmead (Hofstra), Christian Hammond (Santa Clara), Eemeli Yalaho (Washington State), Kyle Evans (UC Irvine), Darius Adams (Maryland), RJ Keene (Boise State) and junior college big Shah Hall.
That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. The 2025-26 Wolfpack went 20-14 and finished 63rd of 365 in net efficiency (points per 100 possessions), with an opponent-adjusted net rating that ranked 34th. They also allowed 113.3 points per 100 possessions, 299th nationally. Most of the players behind both of those numbers are gone, including Darrion Williams, Quadir Copeland and Tre Holloman.
What carries over is real shooting. Paul McNeil Jr. hit 42.7% from three last season on 246 attempts, and Ven-Allen Lubin shot 66.8% from the floor inside. Edmead arrives as the likely lead guard after averaging 16.1 points and 4.4 assists at Hofstra.
Presbyterian lives inside the arc
Presbyterian went 15-18 last season with one of the most distinctive shot diets in the country. Its 3-point attempt rate ranked 357th of 365, meaning almost nobody shot fewer threes. The Blue Hose made up for it by working the paint and drawing contact: they ranked 57th in free throw rate and 84th in offensive rebound rate.
That plan runs straight into Evans, a shot-blocker who also pulled down 8.7 rebounds per game at UC Irvine. If Presbyterian can't finish over him, it has few other ways to score. The Blue Hose also shot just 68.5% at the line last season, 311th nationally, so even the fouls they draw don't always pay. Defensively they did protect the rim, ranking 45th in block rate last season.
Turnovers could decide the margin
Presbyterian's weakness last season was holding onto the ball. It turned it over on 19.4% of possessions, 333rd in Division I. NC State's 2025-26 defense ranked 41st in steal rate, though the players who created most of that pressure have left. Hammond, who averaged 1.2 steals at Santa Clara, is the newcomer most likely to pick up that role.
On the other end, NC State's old offense ranked 12th in turnover rate and 9th in 3-point percentage. Whether a new backcourt reproduces that is the open question. Edmead and Hammond each took about a quarter of their teams' possessions last season, and sharing one ball is a new problem for both.
Schedule and the Shah Hall question
NC State is scheduled to open against Campbell on Nov. 2, ahead of this game. Their exhibition listing shows a 130-66 rout of Lenoir-Rhyne. Presbyterian was scheduled for an exhibition at Clemson on Oct. 28; no result has surfaced.
Hall's status is unsettled. The latest word had him fighting an illness and hoping to return for the Campbell opener, with nothing newer since. He has two seasons of eligibility left after a foot injury cost him his sophomore year.
The last meeting, in November 2024, went to NC State 81-72 in Raleigh. No line has posted for this one yet.
Key players
- Paul McNeil Jr. (NC State): Shot 42.7% from three on 246 attempts last season and posted a 134.6 offensive rating.
- Ven-Allen Lubin (NC State): Started all 34 games last season and shot 66.8% from the floor.
- Preston Edmead (NC State): Averaged 16.1 points and 4.4 assists at Hofstra last season.
- Kyle Evans (NC State): Blocked 3.2 shots per game at UC Irvine last season, a direct problem for Presbyterian's two-point attack.
Numbers that matter
| NC State returning minutes | 28.1% | So little carries over that last season's NC State team numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Presbyterian 3-point attempt rate rank (last season) | 357th | The Blue Hose barely shoot threes, putting the game in the paint against NC State's new bigs. |
| Presbyterian turnover rate (last season) | 19.4% | Ranked 333rd nationally, giving the Wolfpack a clear path to extra possessions. |
| Presbyterian free throw % (last season) | 68.5% | Drawing fouls is a big part of their offense, but they ranked 311th at converting them. |
Presbyterian vs NC State: quick answers
When is Presbyterian vs NC State?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.