Prairie View A&M vs SMU prediction: SMU's rebuilt backcourt faces a Prairie View team starting from scratch

Two NCAA teams, two new rosters

Last March, both of these programs were playing in the NCAA Tournament. SMU made its first appearance since 2017, and Prairie View won the SWAC tournament title, then beat Lehigh in the First Four for the program's first NCAA Tournament win. Almost none of the players who did it will be on the floor Tuesday night at Moody Coliseum.

Prairie View's turnover is close to total. Players on this season's roster logged just 4.6% of last season's minutes and 2.4% of its points. Elijah Mitchell, a guard who played 12.1 minutes a game, is the lone holdover. SMU kept more, but not much: 15.8% of last season's minutes return.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for both sides. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents) had SMU 41st and Prairie View 308th, but those ratings describe teams that no longer exist. The more useful question is what each coach brought in.

Andy Enfield restocks the backcourt

SMU lost its engine. Boopie Miller averaged 19.1 points and Jaron Pierre Jr. 17.6, and both are gone. Enfield replaced them with proven starters from other programs.

Brumbaugh arrives from Tulane after playing 36.1 minutes a night and hitting 36% of his threes. David Terrell Jr. ran North Texas, averaging 4.6 assists, though Enfield has floated a deep rotation and Terrell could come off the bench. Oziyah Sellers brings a St. John's pedigree and an 85.9% free throw stroke, useful in late-game situations.

The early returns were encouraging. SMU beat Texas A&M 94-88 in an exhibition on Oct. 25, closing it out with nine straight free throws in the final 26 seconds. The leading scorer was neither a transfer nor a returner: freshman Cameron Lomax scored 22 points in his first game in a Mustangs uniform.

Size could settle it

The clearest structural edge belongs to SMU. Weighted by minutes, SMU's roster averages 78.1 inches against Prairie View's 74.0, a guard-heavy build for the Panthers whose four listed transfers include three guards.

Returning center Jaden Toombs is the anchor inside. He posted a 58.6% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) in limited minutes last season. Oregon State transfer Johan Munch adds another body at 5.1 rebounds a game. Last season's Prairie View ranked 327th in defensive rebound rate, and nothing about this smaller roster suggests that problem is fixed.

What Prairie View brings

Byron Smith's teams have had an identity even when the names change. Last season's Panthers played at the 12th-fastest pace in the country, forced turnovers at the 23rd-highest rate and ranked 28th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). If Smith rebuilds the same way, expect pressure, a fast game and a lot of trips to the line.

The scoring load likely falls on Hampton transfer Michael Eley, who averaged 11.7 points on a 30.2% usage rate last season, meaning he ended nearly a third of his team's possessions while on the floor. Davian Williams, a 16-game starter at Alcorn State, and Portland State's Sebastian Tidor fill out the backcourt.

The last meeting is a warning. SMU won 110-69 at Moody Coliseum on Nov. 18, 2024, though neither roster from that night resembles this one.

What to watch

• Ball security for SMU's new guards. Pressure is Prairie View's best equalizer against a group playing its first real game together.
• Second chances. SMU's size edge should show up on the offensive glass early.
• Eley's volume. Prairie View needs a high-usage scorer to keep pace.
• Lomax's role. A 22-point exhibition could earn the freshman real minutes in a lineup Enfield calls wide open.

Tip is set for 8 p.m. ET on ACCNX.