Omaha vs BYU prediction: Robert Wright III anchors a rebuilt BYU against Omaha in Provo

A new BYU around Wright

Last season's BYU finished 24th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents), powered by an offense that ranked 12th. Almost none of that team is left. Players on this roster logged only 26.7% of last season's minutes, so those ratings describe a team that no longer exists.

The biggest hole belongs to AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 pick, who averaged 25.5 points. Richie Saunders has turned his attention to the NBA, and center Keba Keita is gone too. The constant is Robert Wright III, who averaged 18.1 points as a full-time starter. He also made 41.7% of his threes, which makes him the safest bet on the floor to create offense when sets break down.

Third-year coach Kevin Young rebuilt through the portal with Collin Chandler from Kentucky, Tyler Betsey from Syracuse and Jake Wahlin from Clemson. Four-star freshman Dean Rueckert, signee Bruce Branch III and international addition Dovydas Buika round out a group still learning each other in early November.

Kohler's court calendar

The most important newcomer may be Jaxon Kohler, the Michigan State transfer forward who averaged 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds there last season. He also stretches the floor, making 38.9% of his threes.

Kohler's eligibility rests on a California temporary restraining order, not a federal ruling. As of early October he intended to play for BYU until the next court decision, with a hearing set to resume Oct. 20. He could lose eligibility only if the injunction is stayed or reversed on appeal, so his status for this game remains a court question until that ruling lands.

Two other BYU names carry summer updates and nothing newer. Guard Dawson Baker tore his ACL in BYU's Thanksgiving-week win over Miami last season and was described as a little ahead of schedule over the summer. Forward Brody Kozlowski was still working back from injury at that time. Nate Pickens was called full-go for summer work.

Open looks against Omaha

Omaha's defense last season let opponents fire away from deep, allowing a 46.8% three-point attempt rate that ranked 15th highest in the country. That suits a BYU roster loaded with shooters. Chandler made 41% of his threes at Kentucky last season, and Betsey hit 40.7% at Syracuse.

The interior was worse for the Mavericks. Opponents made 55.1% of their twos, which ranked 326th. Omaha also rarely took the ball away, sitting 332nd in forced turnover rate. A defense that neither protects the paint nor creates extra possessions gives a deep, efficient offense few places to stall.

Omaha starting over too

BYU isn't the only team rebuilding. Coach Chris Crutchfield had to replace seven seniors plus several portal departures, including guard Khamani Cooper to Central Arkansas. Omaha went 16-17 last season and ended 257th in adjusted net efficiency, closing with a 50-74 loss to North Dakota State in the Summit League semifinals.

That makes last season's Omaha profile a loose guide at best. Its best trait was shot quality: an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 53.7%, 91st nationally. The Mavericks also cleaned their defensive glass well, ranking 78th in defensive rebound rate. That sets up one real contest against a BYU program that ranked 71st on the offensive boards last season, though how much of that rebounding identity survived the roster churn is unknown.

Tip time had not been firmly set as of this week.