Oakland vs Stanford prediction: Julius Price and a remade Stanford face Greg Kampe's fast Oakland
Stanford's new lineup has one exhibition behind it, and Oakland's high-scoring, soft-defending profile from last season gives the Cardinal a clear place to attack.
- Expect a quicker game than Stanford usually plays, with the Cardinal's new guards trying to score inside against an Oakland defense that gave up plenty.
- Stanford's ball security against Oakland's defense: the Cardinal had 20 turnovers in the exhibition, but Oakland ranked 258th in forced turnover rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. The gap in last season's adjusted net efficiency, 13.3 for Stanford against 0.2, sets the early frame.
A new Stanford takes shape
Kyle Smith enters his third season with a lineup that barely resembles last year's. When Stanford opened with an Oct. 17 exhibition at Santa Clara, two freshmen were in the starting five, Julius Price and Aziz Olajuwon, alongside Delaware transfer Christian Bliss and returners Donavin Young and Aidan Cammann.
Price scored 26 in his debut. The ending was less encouraging. Stanford led by 7 with 6:52 left, then Santa Clara closed on a 21-9 run and won 83-78.
Yale transfer Nick Townsend sat out that exhibition while awaiting a ruling in Glancey v. NCAA, and his status for this game hasn't been settled. A forward is also reportedly back from injury and "ready to go."
With this much roster change, last season's Stanford numbers are only a rough guide. Oakland plays the Cardinal in the second of three straight home games to open the season, after Eastern Washington on Nov. 2.
Oakland scores, then gives it back
Greg Kampe is in his 42nd season at Oakland, and last season's team played his kind of game. Oakland averaged 82.6 points, 43rd in Division I, and finished 80th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents.
The defense undid most of that work. Oakland ranked 288th in adjusted defensive efficiency and went 16-16. The worst damage came inside: opponents made 56.5% of their twos, 345th nationally. Oakland also ranked 333rd in defensive rebound rate, the share of an opponent's misses it recovered.
That suits a Stanford roster that is a little taller than Oakland's. The Cardinal's minutes-weighted height is about an inch taller, and if Cammann and Olajuwon win on the glass, Stanford gets the second chances Oakland struggled to stop.
A reversal at the free throw line
Free throws may be the most lopsided matchup in this game. Last season Oakland's defense almost never fouled. Its opponent free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 24.3%, fifth-lowest in the country.
Stanford was the opposite. The Cardinal allowed a 40.3% free throw rate, 314th, and Oakland's offense drew fouls at a 38.0% clip, 95th. If Stanford's young defenders reach in, Oakland's path to keeping this close runs through the line.
Pace and the turnover question
Oakland played at 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 48th-fastest. Stanford sat near the middle at 201st. A faster game produces more possessions, and that puts more strain on a team that just turned the ball over 20 times in the exhibition.
Oakland didn't make opponents pay for loose play last season. It ranked 258th in forced turnover rate, so Stanford's mistakes may cost it less than they did at Santa Clara. Oakland protected the ball well itself, with a 14.8% turnover rate that ranked 48th.
Stanford took 44.0% of its shots from three last season, 89th in attempt rate, and Oakland gave up plenty of attempts. Whether Price and Bliss settle for those shots or attack a soft interior will shape this game.
Where the money is on Oakland vs Stanford
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oakland: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Stanford: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Key players
- Julius Price (Stanford): Scored 26 points in his debut in the Oct. 17 exhibition at Santa Clara.
Numbers that matter
| Oakland opponent 2-point %, last season | 56.5% | It ranked 345th nationally, a clear target for Stanford's frontcourt. |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland opponent free throw rate, last season | 24.3% | Fifth-lowest in the country, so Stanford should get few cheap points at the line. |
| Stanford opponent free throw rate, last season | 40.3% | It ranked 314th, against an Oakland offense that ranked 95th at drawing fouls. |
| Stanford turnovers in exhibition | 20 | Ball security is the first thing to watch from a lineup this new. |
| Oakland pace, last season | 70.7 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 48th-fastest, which points to a quicker game than Stanford usually plays. |
Oakland vs Stanford: quick answers
When is Oakland vs Stanford?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Oakland vs Stanford?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oakland: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Stanford: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.