Northern Kentucky vs Texas A&M prediction: PJ Haggerty leads Texas A&M's rebuilt roster against a new-look Northern Kentucky
Both teams changed most of their rosters, so last season's numbers are a weak guide and the transfers are the best clue to how the game goes.
- Texas A&M's transfer-built backcourt should push the pace at home; Northern Kentucky needs threes and steals to stay close.
- Watch Haggerty, who carried a 32.5% usage rate at Kansas State last season, against a Norse defense that ranked 36th in steal rate.
- No spread or total is posted yet. The number that matters most is A&M's 14.1% returning minutes, which makes last season's ratings a shaky baseline.
An Aggies team assembled in one offseason
Texas A&M won 22 games last season and an NCAA Tournament game. Almost none of that team is back. Players on this roster logged just 14.1% of last season's minutes, so the Aggies' final adjusted net rating from last season (44th nationally) describes a different team. Adjusted net rating is points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents.
The new centerpiece is PJ Haggerty, who scored 23.4 points a game at Kansas State last season. Jordan Pope, from Texas, hit 37.4% of his threes. Tyshawn Archie came from McNeese after averaging 14.3 points and making 90% of his free throws. Lukas Walls, from Radford, may be the most efficient of the group: he shot 45.5% from deep last season. Bucky McMillan, in his second season, said in September that this group has more positional size than last year's.
Northern Kentucky starts over too
The Norse went 20-14 last season. In their exhibition against UT Martin, Darrin Horn started one returnee, Ethan Elliott, alongside four transfers from LaSalle, Niagara, SMU and East Texas A&M. Horn is in his seventh season, but his bench has changed too: assistant RJ Evans left in the spring to become head coach at American International College.
Last season's identity gives a sense of what Horn wants. Northern Kentucky ranked 39th in pace and 36th in steal rate. Its defense was its weak point, allowing opponents to make 35.4% of their threes, which ranked 293rd. How much of that carries over with a new starting five is an open question.
A fast game built on threes
Both programs played quickly and shot a lot from deep last season. A&M took 46.2% of its shots from three, 42nd most in the country, and Northern Kentucky's 44.6% ranked 77th. That points to plenty of possessions and a high-variance shooting night at Reed Arena.
The Aggies also moved the ball well: their assist rate (the share of made shots that come off an assist) ranked 25th. With Haggerty dominating the ball, that could change. At Kansas State he averaged 3.8 assists against a heavy scoring load.
The glass and the turnover battle
Neither team protected its defensive boards last season. A&M ranked 311th in defensive rebound percentage and Northern Kentucky ranked 254th, so second chances could swing this game. The two rosters are nearly the same height, with minutes-weighted averages of 76.4 and 76.3 inches.
Turnovers are the Norse's clearest path to an upset. A&M took care of the ball last season, with a turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) that ranked 69th. That was a different backcourt, though, and a new group facing pressure in its first weeks together can leak giveaways.
Health and the calendar
Two returning forwards spent the summer recovering from foot injuries. In June, Mackenzie Mgbako was limited by a foot injury and Zach Clemence had foot surgery with an expected July return. No later update on either has surfaced, although Mgbako appeared at McMillan's Oct. 13 press conference. Clemence shot 40% from three last season, and Mgbako averaged 10.4 points in his seven games. Guard Bryson Warren was ruled ineligible and entered the transfer portal.
A&M plays an exhibition at SMU on Oct. 25. The school lists tip-off for 7 p.m. Central on Nov. 6, though other listings differ. Nothing has been reported on Northern Kentucky's availability.
Where the money is on Northern Kentucky vs Texas A&M
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Kentucky: 60% of bets, 3% of the money; Texas A&M: 40% of bets, 97% of the money.
Key players
- PJ Haggerty (Texas A&M): He averaged 23.4 points in 35.2 minutes a game at Kansas State last season.
- Jordan Pope (Texas A&M): He made 86 threes at a 37.4% clip for Texas last season.
- Tyshawn Archie (Texas A&M): He scored 14.3 points a game at McNeese last season and shot 90% from the line.
- Lukas Walls (Texas A&M): His 67.6% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) led this group last season.
Numbers that matter
| A&M returning minutes | 14.1% | Almost all of last season's production is gone, so last season's ratings say little about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Haggerty usage at Kansas State | 32.5% | His heavy share of possessions last season suggests the offense will run through him. |
| NKU opponent 3-point % (last season) | 293rd | Last season's Norse defense struggled against the three, and A&M ranked 42nd in three-point attempt rate. |
| A&M defensive rebound % rank (last season) | 311th | Both teams gave up second chances last season, so the glass could decide the game. |
| NKU steal rate rank (last season) | 36th | Forcing turnovers is the Norse's best way to unsettle a new backcourt. |
Northern Kentucky vs Texas A&M: quick answers
When is Northern Kentucky vs Texas A&M?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Northern Kentucky vs Texas A&M?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Kentucky: 60% of bets, 3% of the money; Texas A&M: 40% of bets, 97% of the money.