Northern Kentucky vs Saint Louis prediction: Saint Louis reloads its shooters while Northern Kentucky starts nearly from scratch

A rebuild walks into a reload

Saint Louis spent last season as one of the best teams in the country, finishing 29-6. Northern Kentucky spent the offseason watching its rotation leave. When the Norse visit Chaifetz Arena, the gap between those two summers may matter more than anything either team did last winter.

Northern Kentucky returns 23.8% of last season's minutes and just 11.2% of its points. Its top five scorers are gone, including LJ Wells to Louisville and Donovan Oday to Troy. Saint Louis returns 58.6% of its minutes. The Billikens bring back 10 players, including six of their seven top scorers.

That makes last season's ratings a weak guide for NKU and a reasonable one for Saint Louis. In adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), the Billikens finished 30th of 365 and the Norse 172nd. Saint Louis was picked second in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll. Northern Kentucky was picked fifth in the Horizon League.

Tip is listed for 8 p.m. ET, though published start times differ, so confirm before the game.

Avila and the injury list

Robbie Avila is the biggest variable on either roster. On Oct. 23 a judge issued a temporary restraining order allowing him on the Saint Louis roster for 2026-27, rejecting the NCAA's argument that he was ineligible. A preliminary injunction hearing is set for Wednesday, Nov. 4. Saint Louis plans to wait for that ruling before playing him, which would keep him out of the Nov. 2 opener against Lehigh. Whether he plays in this game depends on that ruling.

The center was a passing hub last season, averaging 12.8 points and 4.1 assists. He also hit 41% of his threes, which pulls opposing big men away from the rim.

The rest of the Saint Louis list is murkier. Quentin Jones aggravated an ankle sprain and was described as uncertain for the start of the regular season, with no newer update. Amari McCottry was not in uniform for the Oct. 23 exhibition against Bradley, and no reason was given. Colorado transfer Alon Michaeli played through an ankle issue in that game. Northern Kentucky has no reported injuries.

Shooters against a soft perimeter

Saint Louis made 39.6% of its threes last season, 3rd nationally, and the two best shooters are back. Green hit 44.2% from deep and earned a preseason first-team all-conference spot. Sharma, mostly a reserve, made 41.7% of his threes.

Last season's Northern Kentucky defense allowed opponents to shoot 35.4% from three, 293rd in the country. Most of those defenders are gone, so this year's version is largely unknown.

The other end looks tougher for the Norse. Saint Louis held opponents to a 44.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), the best mark in Division I. Kellen Thames, a preseason all-defensive pick, anchors that group. Returning point guard Ethan Elliott made 25.6% of his threes last season, so defenses can sag off him. Much of NKU's spacing will depend on East Texas A&M transfer Noah Pagotto.

A fast game with loose ball security

Both teams played fast last season. Saint Louis averaged 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes and Northern Kentucky 71, so expect a quick game with plenty of possessions.

The one area where last season's Norse profile pointed to an edge was turnovers. NKU forced turnovers on 19.2% of opponent possessions (65th). Saint Louis gave the ball away on 17.2% of its possessions (213th). Most of the defenders who generated those steals have left, though. If Jones and McCottry are limited, Saint Louis could be thin in the backcourt, and that is the most likely way for a pressing Norse team to steal some possessions.