Northern Colorado vs Arizona State prediction: Randy Bennett's transfer-built Sun Devils face Northern Colorado's own reset

Two rosters starting over

Nothing about last season's box scores describes the teams that will take the floor at Desert Financial Arena. Arizona State returns just 9.2% of last season's minutes in Randy Bennett's first season in Tempe, after Bobby Hurley's 11-year run ended. Northern Colorado brings back more, but only 25.1%.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide on both sides. They are worth a look because the gap points in an unexpected direction. Northern Colorado went 20-12 with a net efficiency that ranked 79th nationally, while Arizona State finished 17-16 and ranked 266th. Adjust those for schedule, though, and the order flips. Arizona State's final adjusted net rating, points per 100 possessions after accounting for opponents, ranked 75th. Northern Colorado's ranked 142nd. A Big 12 schedule hides a lot.

Murauskas leads the new core

Arizona State's rebuild runs through Paulius Murauskas, a preseason All-Big 12 pick who scored 18.4 points a game at Saint Mary's last season. His former Gaels teammate Dillan Shaw came with him and made 41.6% of his threes, which gives the Sun Devils a floor-spacer beside their big men.

Joel Foxwell is the engine. He averaged 6.5 assists at Portland last season while playing heavy minutes, though he shot just 31.9% from three. Emmanuel Innocenti, who came from Gonzaga, adds a low-usage wing who rarely hurt his team.

Northern Colorado lost the heart of its offense. Quinn Denker averaged 19.2 points and Brock Wisne 16.2, and Zach Bloch's 42.9% three-point shooting is gone too. The Bears' biggest arrival is Langston Reynolds from Minnesota, a 26-game starter who averaged 4.5 assists last season.

Size around the rim

The clearest edge on the floor belongs to Arizona State. Its minutes-weighted average height is 78.2 inches to Northern Colorado's 77.0, and Ben Defty is the reason that matters. At Boston University last season he made 69.4% of his shots and blocked 1.8 per game.

Northern Colorado's returning big, Egan Shields, was efficient in a limited role, but the Bears' interior defense was their soft spot last season. Opponents shot 52.3% inside the arc against them, which ranked 233rd, and their block rate ranked 322nd. If Murauskas and Defty can work from the post and short corner, the Bears may have few answers there.

Last season's habits on the glass

Coaching tendencies can carry over even when the rosters don't. Under Steve Smiley, Northern Colorado's defense last season was built on finishing possessions rather than ending them early. The Bears ranked 5th nationally in defensive rebound rate, the share of opponents' misses they grabbed, but 359th in forced turnover rate.

Arizona State is the one with a new coach, so its old numbers say less about how it will play. Its defensive rebounding ranked 349th last season, one of the worst marks in the country. With a new frontcourt in place, cleaning up that weakness is one of the first things to watch on Bennett's team.

Availability and setting

Bryce Ford, one of the few Sun Devils back from last season, was listed with a hip issue in an older report, but nothing current has surfaced. He took part in a scrimmage against Colorado State on Oct. 17, but there has been no formal update on his status. Vijay Wallace missed all of 2025-26 with a severe leg injury suffered in an exhibition at Texas A&M, and no newer update has surfaced. Nothing has been reported on Northern Colorado's availability.

Arizona State won the only previous meeting, in 2006 in Tempe. An earlier schedule listed a 7:00 p.m. MST tip on ESPN+, but the official box score page still reads time TBA.

There is no betting line yet. When one appears, it will be set with almost no current information, and that matters more than usual for two teams this new.