North Dakota State vs San Francisco prediction: North Dakota State's rebuilt champions test their new pieces at San Francisco

A champion starting over

North Dakota State won the Summit League tournament last spring and finished 27-8. The league still picked the Bison to repeat, giving them 13 of 32 first-place votes and 418 points, just ahead of St. Thomas at 410. That vote is a bet on David Richman, now in his 13th season, more than on the roster he coached a year ago.

The Bison return one starter, guard Andy Stefonowicz, and added 13 newcomers: seven transfers, five freshmen and one international player. Two of last season's top contributors are gone, with Trevian Carson now at Cincinnati and Noah Feddersen at Colorado. That turnover makes last season's team numbers a loose guide to the group that takes the floor at War Memorial at the Sobrato Center.

The schedule adds friction. This is the second stop on a three-game California trip that opens at Saint Mary's on Nov. 4 and closes at Cal State Bakersfield on Nov. 8. A new rotation will be learning itself on the road, on short rest, in the first week of the season.

The Dons live behind the arc

San Francisco under fourth-year coach Chris Gerlufsen built its offense around the three last season. The Dons took threes on 45.9% of their field goal attempts, 51st in the country, and made 34.7% of them, 141st. Inside the arc they were less dangerous, hitting 51.2% of their twos, which ranked 240th.

That profile lines up with what North Dakota State allowed a year ago. Bison opponents took threes on 43.9% of their shots, the 44th-highest share nationally, so that defense let teams fire from deep. If that tendency survives the roster churn, San Francisco gets the shot diet it wants, and the game swings on whether those attempts fall.

Free throws and the glass

The Dons' other weapon last season was the foul line. Their free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 39.4%, 67th nationally. North Dakota State's defense was stingy there, holding opponents to a 28.0% rate, 38th.

The Bison's biggest edge from last season came on the defensive glass: they grabbed 75.0% of opponents' misses, 11th in Division I. They also forced turnovers on 19.8% of possessions, 48th, while San Francisco forced them on just 15.1%, 308th. Ball pressure and finishing defensive possessions were the identity of last year's group; whether the newcomers inherit it is the open question.

A slow game in San Francisco

San Francisco played at 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 324th in the country. North Dakota State sat near the middle at 68.3, 151st. On the Dons' floor, expect fewer possessions and a premium on each one.

By last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions against the quality of opponents faced, these programs finished close: San Francisco 117th in net efficiency, North Dakota State 123rd. The Dons' weakness was defense, which ranked 286th in raw efficiency at 112.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, a 17-16 season's main problem.

Tip time is still unsettled. San Francisco lists 7 p.m., North Dakota State lists 9 p.m. Central, which is the same moment, and other listings show it as to be determined.