North Dakota State vs Saint Mary's prediction: Saint Mary's starts over; North Dakota State's veterans arrive in Moraga

A new bench in Moraga

For a quarter century, Saint Mary's basketball meant Randy Bennett. He left after 25 seasons to take over at Arizona State, and Mickey McConnell was named head coach on March 23. The Gaels arrive at this game as defending WCC regular-season champions with four straight league titles. Very little of that team is still here.

Players on this season's roster accounted for just 29.2% of last season's minutes. Paulius Murauskas, who scored 18.4 points a game, followed Bennett to Arizona State. Mikey Lewis went to Texas and center Andrew McKeever to Iowa. The Gaels finished last season 23rd nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). With this much turnover, that rating says more about the program's standard than about this roster.

The constant is Joshua Dent, a preseason all-WCC pick who averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 assists last season while playing more than 36 minutes a night. Coaches still picked Saint Mary's second in the WCC behind Santa Clara. Saint Mary's listed no injuries as of Oct. 15.

The Bison kept their core

North Dakota State is coming off a 27-8 season, a Summit League regular-season title and a 70-62 win over North Dakota in the conference tournament final. David Richman is in his 13th season, and most of his rotation stayed with him. The roster returns 68.2% of last season's minutes.

The Bison did lose two key players. Trevian Carson left for Cincinnati and forward Noah Feddersen for Colorado, and Karl Poom arrives from Northern Arizona. The guards who carried the offense are back. Damari Wheeler-Thomas led the team at 14.5 points a game. Markhi Strickland, a guard who almost never shoots threes, made 59.6% of his field goals by living around the rim. In an early-November game, a group that already knows its roles has a real edge over one still sorting them out.

Shooters against a reshuffled perimeter

North Dakota State's offense runs through its outside shooters. Tay Smith hit 39.1% of his threes last season off the bench, and Wheeler-Thomas made 38.3% on high volume. Andy Stefonowicz, a guard who shot 37.7% from three last season, adds a steady third option.

The Gaels will have to defend that group with largely new personnel. Saint Mary's three-point defense was strong last season, holding opponents to 31.1%, 39th nationally, but the players who earned that number are mostly gone. On the other end, Dent shot 40.4% from deep, so he can punish a Bison defense that allowed opponents to take threes freely last season.

Pressure meets a slow clock

Saint Mary's under Bennett played at 61.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 364th of 365 teams. Whether McConnell keeps that tempo is one of the first things this game will show.

Ball security is the main stress point. North Dakota State forced turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions last season, 48th nationally. The Gaels gave the ball away on 17.9% of theirs, 268th. With a mostly new supporting cast around Dent, any extra possessions the Bison create could swing a game this slow.

The glass may offset that. North Dakota State grabbed 75.0% of available defensive rebounds, 11th in the country, so the Gaels may not get many second chances to make up for lost possessions.