Nicholls vs UAB prediction: Nicholls' ball-hawking defense tests UAB's careful guards in Birmingham

Pressure against a careful offense

The clearest clash in this opener comes from last season's habits. Nicholls built its defense on taking the ball away. The Colonels forced turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions, 15th of 365 Division I teams, and their steal rate ranked 13th. For a team that finished 14-19, that pressure was the one elite trait.

UAB was its opposite in the best way. The Blazers turned it over on just 12.9% of possessions, 4th in the country. Either Nicholls' gamble-heavy defense creates the extra possessions it needs, or UAB's patience starves the Colonels of the easy offense they rely on. These are last season's numbers, and both rosters have changed, so the first few possessions will tell more than any table.

UAB's jumper problem

UAB won 20 games last season despite shooting, not because of it. The Blazers made 28.1% of their threes, 363rd nationally, and their effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) ranked 320th. They adjusted sensibly, taking threes on only 30.5% of their shots, one of the lowest rates in the country.

That approach lines up well against Nicholls. The Colonels let opponents make 55.3% of their two-pointers, 329th nationally, and their opponent effective field goal percentage ranked 321st. If UAB keeps attacking inside, the shots it wants should be there. Nicholls, meanwhile, leaned on the three, ranking 86th in attempt rate while making 33.4%.

Second chances and the foul line

Nicholls' defensive possessions often didn't end when they should have. The Colonels grabbed just 66.8% of opponent misses, 315th nationally, while UAB's offensive rebounding rate of 33.0% ranked 110th. For a UAB team that misses plenty of jumpers, the offensive glass is a natural fallback.

The free throw line was a problem for Nicholls too. The Colonels shot 66.7% there, 347th in the country. UAB was stingy about sending opponents to the line, ranking 36th in opponent free throw rate, so Nicholls may not get many trips, and it struggled to cash in on the ones it did.

New faces on both benches

Nicholls opens under Darion Brown, who was named head coach on June 30 pending approval from the University of Louisiana System Board of Supervisors. A new staff means last season's pressure identity isn't guaranteed to carry over.

UAB's roster lists several well-traveled veterans. Justyn Fernandez has stops at Delaware, Providence and George Mason, Deuce Jones at St. Joseph's and La Salle, and T.J. Caldwell at Arkansas State and Ole Miss. Aleks Alston arrives from Maryland, along with freshmen Korie Corbett and Kaleb Davis. Fernandez and Jones made the American's preseason All-Conference Second Team, and the coaches picked UAB sixth in the league.

By last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), UAB sat 112th nationally and Nicholls 238th. The Blazers also get tune-ups that Nicholls' schedule notes don't show: exhibitions at Vanderbilt on Oct. 19 and at Ole Miss on Oct. 27. Tip time for the Nov. 6 game hasn't been set.