New Haven vs Rutgers prediction: Brandin Knight's rebuilt Rutgers opens for real against New Haven's grind

A new voice on the bench

Rutgers begins its regular season on Friday, Nov. 6, with someone other than Steve Pikiell in charge. Pikiell announced in September that he had been diagnosed with cancer, and associate head coach Brandin Knight has run the team since Pikiell's surgery. Pikiell faces chemotherapy over the next six months, and Knight was still leading the program through the mid-October exhibitions.

Those exhibitions were tense, and both went the wrong way. Rutgers fell 77-75 to Villanova on Oct. 11, then lost 104-99 to St. John's in four overtimes at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 18. Buchanan's shot to tie it with 23 seconds left in the final overtime missed. Exhibitions don't count, but both games came down to the final possessions. The 7 p.m. ET tip at Jersey Mike's Arena, on B1G+, opens a three-game homestand that continues against NJIT and Bryant.

Rutgers needs points inside

Last season's Scarlet Knights could not finish. They made 46.5% of their twos, 351st of 365 Division I teams, and their effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) ranked 344th. That is why the offseason mattered. Rutgers added five Division I transfers, including Kansas State's 7-foot-2 Dorin Buca, Virginia Tech's 6-foot-10 sophomore center Christian Gurdak, and Manhattan's Will Sydnor, who is projected to start.

New Haven is a good test for that size. The Chargers blocked just 6.8% of opponents' two-point tries last season, 321st nationally. If Buca and Gurdak get the ball near the rim, the shots should be there. Last season's Rutgers did protect the ball, with a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) that ranked 59th, so the issue was conversion, not careless possessions.

New Haven's slow grind

Ted Hotaling's team plays at a crawl and lives on the defensive glass. Last season, in its first NEC campaign, New Haven averaged 64.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 339th in the country. It grabbed 73.9% of opponents' misses, 30th nationally, and rarely sent teams to the line, ranking 33rd in opponent free throw rate. That profile hits Rutgers where it was weak: the Scarlet Knights ranked 305th in defensive rebounding last season.

The raw defensive numbers flatter the Chargers. They allowed 66.3 points per game, 21st nationally, but that reflects their slow pace and an NEC schedule. Adjusted for opponents, their defense ranked 220th. The offense is the bigger problem: New Haven shot 31.3% from three last season, 320th, and its offensive rebound rate ranked 351st, so there were few second chances after misses.

What last season says, and doesn't

Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions against the schedule played, put Rutgers at plus-2.6 (139th) and New Haven at minus-16.5 (326th). That is a wide gap between a Big Ten team and a program still moving through its Division I transition, now in its second NEC season.

The caution is how much Rutgers has changed. Preseason magazines Blue Ribbon and Lindy's both picked the Scarlet Knights 16th in the Big Ten, and the roster carries five newcomers from other Division I schools. Last season's 14-20 team is a rough guide at best. New Haven went 14-17 and opens its season at Syracuse before this trip to Piscataway.

What to watch - Whether Rutgers' bigs turn post touches into points against a defense that rarely blocks shots - Rutgers on the defensive glass, where New Haven gives up few extra chances itself - A low possession count if New Haven controls the tempo