Missouri vs Saint Louis prediction: Saint Louis brings its shooters back as Missouri debuts a rebuilt roster

Continuity against a clean slate

The in-state rivalry comes back for the first time since the 2001-02 season, and the two programs arrive from opposite directions. Missouri leads the series 21-19, but almost nothing about this Missouri roster resembles the one that ended last season with an 80-66 first-round NCAA loss to Miami in St. Louis.

The Tigers return 19.4% of last season's minutes. Saint Louis returns 66.8%, with coach Josh Schertz back for a third season after he was reportedly a top candidate for the NC State and Syracuse openings in the spring and stayed. The Billikens are coming off a school-record 29 wins, an A-10 regular-season title and a Round of 32 loss to eventual champion Michigan.

Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Saint Louis 30th and Missouri 57th. For the Billikens that number still means something. For Missouri it describes a team that mostly no longer exists.

The Mitchell question

The roster data counts Mark Mitchell, Missouri's leading scorer the last two seasons, as a departure. That may not hold. As of mid-October he had a temporary injunction making him eligible for 2026-27, with a permanent ruling still pending. Last season he averaged 18.3 points with an offensive rating of 125.9, so his availability changes the Tigers' ceiling more than any other variable.

Fifth-year guard CJ Gunn is in a shakier spot. His temporary injunction from a Boone County court expires the morning of Oct. 24, and nothing yet says what happens after that. Annor Boateng will not play: Dennis Gates announced Oct. 11 that the guard is out for the season after left-leg surgery in February.

Without Mitchell, the load falls on transfers. Jordan Crawford scored 14.4 points a game at South Dakota, and Jamier Jones posted a 59.5% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at Providence. Five-star freshmen Jason Crowe Jr. and Toni Bryant join them, and no starting five has been announced.

Threes decide the shape

Saint Louis lived on the perimeter last season, hitting 39.6% from three, third in the country. The two best shooters are back: Green made 44.2% on 208 attempts and Sharma 41.7% on 192. The biggest losses were also shooters, though. Center Robbie Avila, who made 66 threes and handed out 4.1 assists a game, is gone, and Brady Dunlap left for Georgia.

Missouri's perimeter defense was a clear weakness last season, allowing 36.8% from three, 349th nationally. Most of the players responsible have moved on, so the real question is whether a new group of guards can chase Green and Sharma off the line. Trent Pierce, one of the few rotation returners, gives Missouri a shooter of its own after making 38.4% of his threes last season.

Size, the glass and the line

Missouri's lineup averages 78.9 inches weighted by minutes, against 77.0 for Saint Louis, and Schertz was still sorting through big-man options when summer practice ended. That points the Tigers toward the paint, where Bryson Tiller blocked 1.3 shots a game at Kansas and flashed his tools in the Oct. 11 pro day scrimmage.

Last season's Missouri lived at the foul line, ranking 24th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), but made just 69.1% once there. Saint Louis held opponents to a 44.5% effective field goal percentage last season, ranked first nationally. Against that, free throws and second chances may be Missouri's cleanest offense.

What to watch

• Tempo: Saint Louis played at 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 20th fastest, while Missouri sat 193rd. An early pace that favors the Billikens' shooters is a bad sign for the Tigers.
• Eligibility news: Gunn's injunction deadline on Oct. 24 and Mitchell's pending ruling could reshape Missouri's rotation before tip.
• Amari McCottry at the line: The All-A-10 guard carried a 25.2% usage rate but shot 58.2% on free throws last season, a pressure point late in a close game.
• Tip time: Missouri's box score lists it as TBA.