Mississippi Valley State vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma's portal rebuild gets its first test against Mississippi Valley State
The Sooners bring back barely a third of last season's minutes, and a Delta Devils team opening with 14 straight road games is the first audience for the new pieces.
- Oklahoma should control this from the start; the real interest is how Porter Moser's mostly new rotation fits together.
- Oklahoma's new shooters face a Valley State defense that ranked 351st in opponent 3-point percentage last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings had Oklahoma 45th and Valley State 365th.
A new Sooners rotation debuts
Most guarantee games tell you little. This one is a first look at a roster Oklahoma rebuilt almost from scratch. The Sooners return 38.4% of last season's minutes, so the team that went 21-16 in 2025-26 is a loose guide at best.
The biggest hole is Nijel Pack, who scored 16.8 points a game and made 44.7% of his threes. Xzayvier Brown is the anchor now, a senior guard and preseason All-SEC candidate who averaged 15.4 points last season. Derrion Reid, the other returning starter, posted an offensive rating of 129 (points produced per 100 possessions) last season.
The portal supplies the rest. Duke Brennan pulled down 10.2 rebounds a game at Villanova. Tyler Hendricks shot 44.8% from three at Utah Valley, and Pop Isaacs adds another floor-spacer from Texas A&M who hit 39.6% from deep. Freshmen Gage Mayfield and Quincy Wadley are also on the roster. Moser, in his sixth season, has a group picked 12th in the SEC preseason poll, and an opener like this is where he sorts out rotations.
Edwards and the eligibility fog
The open question is B.J. Edwards. The SMU transfer averaged 4.9 assists and 2.3 steals last season, and he projects as a key piece of Oklahoma's backcourt and defense. On Aug. 26 a Tennessee appeals court stayed the injunction protecting him, leaving him ineligible while the NCAA appeal proceeds. An earlier report had him eligible under a separate state order, and a preview from mid-October still framed his availability as conditional. His status is unsettled, and Oklahoma hasn't announced a resolution.
Brennan was reported eligible in late August through a California restraining order that could still be challenged. Tae Davis, a wing listed among last season's departures, was reported in late August as no longer eligible after the Colorado injunction tied to his fifth year was stayed, though his current status isn't confirmed.
Where Valley State breaks down
Mississippi Valley State went 3-30 last season and finished 365th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Oklahoma finished 45th.
The Delta Devils' problems started with the ball. Their turnover rate of 22.1% ranked 359th, meaning more than a fifth of their trips ended without a shot. Their defense sent opponents to the line constantly: an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 50.1% ranked 363rd. That suits Brown, an 87.4% foul shooter last season.
The perimeter was no better. Opponents shot 36.9% from three against Valley State, 351st nationally. For a Sooners roster built around Hendricks and Isaacs, this is a chance to find rhythm early. Valley State's own shooting offered little pushback, with a 30.0% mark from three.
A new coach, a long road
Mike Davis takes over a program that has finished last in the SWAC seven seasons running. He was hired in late April after head-coaching stops at Indiana, UAB, Texas Southern and Detroit Mercy, and he spent the past two seasons as a Memphis assistant. Last season's figures reflect the previous regime, so treat them as a baseline rather than a forecast.
The schedule offers no shelter. Valley State opens with 14 straight road games and won't play at home until Jan. 9, and the Delta Devils have never beaten a high-major opponent. Their most memorable recent result was a one-point win over Texas Southern that snapped a 25-game losing streak.
The last time these teams met, in November 2023, Oklahoma won 82-43 at home. The school lists a 7 p.m. ET tip on SECN+ in Norman.
Where the money is on Mississippi Valley State vs Oklahoma
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mississippi Valley State: 50% of bets, 1% of the money; Oklahoma: 50% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- Xzayvier Brown (Oklahoma): Averaged 15.4 points and shot 87.4% from the line last season while starting all 37 games.
- Duke Brennan (Oklahoma): Pulled down 10.2 rebounds a game at Villanova last season while shooting 65.8% from the field.
- Tyler Hendricks (Oklahoma): Made 44.8% of his threes at Utah Valley last season.
- Derrion Reid (Oklahoma): Scored 11.7 points a game with a 129 offensive rating last season.
Numbers that matter
| Oklahoma returning minutes | 38.4% | Most of last season's production is gone, so 2025-26 team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Valley State turnover rate (last season) | 22.1% | Ranked 359th nationally; giveaways sank the Delta Devils' offense. |
| Valley State opponent free throw rate (last season) | 50.1% | Ranked 363rd, a steady stream of free points for opponents. |
| Valley State opponent 3-point % (last season) | 36.9% | Ranked 351st, an opening for Oklahoma's new shooters. |
| Valley State adjusted net efficiency rank (last season) | 365th | Last of 365 Division I teams; Oklahoma finished 45th. |
Mississippi Valley State vs Oklahoma: quick answers
When is Mississippi Valley State vs Oklahoma?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Mississippi Valley State vs Oklahoma?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mississippi Valley State: 50% of bets, 1% of the money; Oklahoma: 50% of bets, 99% of the money.