Middle Tennessee vs Kansas prediction: Kansas unveils a rebuilt backcourt against Middle Tennessee's three-point volume
Kansas turned over nearly its whole roster, then won back two starters in court and by ruling, and Middle Tennessee's long-range habit tests the new group's perimeter defense.
- Kansas should control this on talent and length, but its new pieces are still learning each other, so early possessions may be uneven.
- Middle Tennessee's three-point volume against a Kansas defense that held opponents to 30.6% from deep last season.
- No spread or total posted yet. Kansas's adjusted defense, 9th nationally last season, is the number that bears on it most.
A roster rebuilt in weeks
Kansas spent the offseason losing almost everything, then got two of its biggest pieces back. The roster data credits this season's group with just 6.4% of last season's minutes, but that figure still lists Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White among the departures. White was cleared for a fifth season on Sep. 28. Council won a preliminary injunction against the NCAA in late September and had rejoined practice by early October. The ruling doesn't permanently settle his eligibility.
Around them, Bill Self imported production. Leroy Blyden Jr. averaged 16.4 points at Toledo last season, and Dennis Parker Jr. scored 18.2 a game at Radford. Keanu Dawes started every game he played at Utah. Freshman Tyran Stokes made CBS Sports' preseason All-Freshman team. The early verdict on the mix is strong: Kansas landed No. 8 in the preseason KenPom ratings.
Middle Tennessee lives behind the arc
Nick McDevitt's team went 17-15 last season and built its offense on volume from deep. Its 3-point attempt rate, the share of shots taken from three, was 45.9%, 50th-most in Division I. It made just 34.0% of them, a middling 183rd.
That plays into how Kansas defended last season. The Jayhawks defended well on both levels last season. Opponents made only 44.4% of their twos against Kansas, 6th-best nationally, and 30.6% of their threes. The open question is how much of that survives the roster churn.
What Kansas has to replace
The defense came with a cost on the other end. Kansas finished 214th in raw offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) last season, and its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, ranked 207th. The transfers look aimed at that problem: Blyden shot 41% from three at Toledo on 188 attempts.
The bigger loss may be inside. Flory Bidunga, who blocked 2.6 shots a game, left for Louisville. Kansas ranked 6th in block rate last season, and much of that walked out the door. Christian Reeves, the Charleston transfer who averaged 1.4 blocks, was recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and wasn't a full practice participant as of early October. If he isn't ready, Middle Tennessee's guards may find more room near the rim than last season's numbers suggest.
Free throws and the margins
Kansas rarely sent opponents to the line last season, ranking 30th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). That suits a Middle Tennessee team that already struggled there, shooting 70.2% at the line, 262nd nationally.
One quirk cuts the other way. Kansas forced turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the country, 345th, so Middle Tennessee should get its shots up. Whether those shots fall decides how close this stays.
Between Fordham and Kentucky
This game sits between Fordham and Kentucky in a demanding opening stretch. Kansas's next listed game is Fordham on Nov. 2, and the Jayhawks face Kentucky in the Champions Classic on Nov. 10. Before any of that, they play exhibitions against Louisville on Oct. 21, a reunion with Bidunga, and Duke on Oct. 25. Tip time for this one hasn't been announced, and no line has been posted.
- Who starts alongside Council and White, and how minutes split among the transfers
- Whether Reeves is cleared for full contact
- Middle Tennessee's three-point attempt share in the first half
Where the money is on Middle Tennessee vs Kansas
On the Kalshi moneyline: Middle Tennessee: 67% of bets, 10% of the money; Kansas: 33% of bets, 90% of the money.
Key players
- Melvin Council Jr. (Kansas): He averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 assists last season but posted a 43.4% effective field goal percentage.
- Tre White (Kansas): Cleared for a fifth season, he shot 40.3% from three and 87.2% at the line last season.
- Leroy Blyden Jr. (Kansas): He averaged 16.4 points and 4.2 assists at Toledo last season while hitting 41% from three.
- Dennis Parker Jr. (Kansas): He scored 18.2 points a game at Radford last season on a 29.2% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| Kansas adjusted defense, last season | 9th | Kansas allowed 92.8 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, among the best in the country. |
|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee 3-point attempt rate, last season | 45.9% | The Blue Raiders took threes at the 50th-highest rate in Division I. |
| Kansas opponent 2-point %, last season | 44.4% | Ranked 6th nationally, but Bidunga's shot-blocking is now at Louisville. |
| Kansas returning minutes | 6.4% | The figure still counts Council and White as departures; both have since been cleared to play. |
| Middle Tennessee free throw %, last season | 70.2% | Ranked 262nd, a weakness against a defense that rarely fouls anyway. |
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas: quick answers
When is Middle Tennessee vs Kansas?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Middle Tennessee vs Kansas?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Middle Tennessee: 67% of bets, 10% of the money; Kansas: 33% of bets, 90% of the money.