Michigan vs UConn prediction: Michigan and UConn's title rematch turns on who replaced the big men

Same matchup, different teams

Michigan beat UConn 69-63 in April to win the national championship, and the rematch at TD Garden arrives with most of that title game gone. Michigan returns just 36.0% of last season's minutes. UConn brings back 47.3%. Neither number makes last season's team profile a reliable guide.

The Wolverines also changed coaches. Mike Boynton Jr. was promoted after Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks. Last season Michigan finished 1st nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), with UConn 10th. The preseason view is far more modest for Michigan: No. 22 in ESPN's Top 25 and third in the Big Ten media poll. UConn opens 11th in the preseason KenPom rankings, so the Huskies carry the stronger projection into this one.

Rebuilding the paint

April's final was won near the rim, and both teams lost the players who controlled it. Michigan's Aday Mara blocked 2.5 shots a game last season, anchoring a defense that ranked 3rd in block rate. Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg are gone too.

The replacements are transfers. Moustapha Thiam blocked 1.6 shots a game at Cincinnati last season. J.P. Estrella was an efficient finisher at Tennessee. Thiam picked up a lower-leg injury in a September scrimmage that was described as minor, and nothing newer has surfaced.

UConn lost center Tarris Reed Jr., who averaged 9.0 rebounds last season, plus Alex Karaban. The most promising answer so far is Seton Hall transfer Na'jai Hines, who blocked 2.2 shots a game there and led UConn in scoring off the bench in the 72-52 exhibition win over Syracuse.

Whose guards are healthy

UConn's backcourt is the bigger question mark. Braylon Mullins missed the Oct. 13 exhibition with an undisclosed injury, and Dan Hurley said he wasn't ready for a live game. He was still working back as of late last week. Solo Ball watched that exhibition from the bench, and as of Oct. 14 it was suggested he may not play until later in the year. Silas Demary Jr. had been battling a weeks-long illness but was expected to play against Syracuse. Freshman Colben Landrew started that game, so the rotation is still forming.

The steadiest new piece is Wofford transfer Nils Machowski, who scored 17.2 points a game there last season.

Michigan's guard depth took its own hit. Freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. tore his ACL on the August foreign tour and is out for the season, which pushes redshirt Ricky Liburd into a bigger role. Roddy Gayle Jr.'s eligibility hadn't been confirmed as of early October. L.J. Cason's status is unsettled, with conflicting reports about a torn ACL. The certain pieces are Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney and Columbia transfer Kenny Noland, who averaged 17.1 points last season.

Tempo and the foul line

Last season these programs played at opposite speeds. Michigan averaged 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 58th nationally. UConn averaged 63.5, 353rd. Hurley's system tends to survive roster churn, so a slow, half-court game remains the likelier shape.

UConn's one recurring defensive flaw was fouling. The Huskies ranked 322nd last season in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), allowing 40.7%. Michigan got to the line often, and Noland shot 92.2% from the stripe at Columbia. If UConn's new bigs are still learning positional defense in November, free throws could be where Michigan finds easy points.