Michigan State vs Duke prediction: Jeremy Fears Jr. and Michigan State test Duke's rebuilt roster in Chicago

Continuity against a reload

Duke went 35-3 last season and finished second nationally in adjusted net efficiency, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. Very little of that team is still around. The Blue Devils return 43.2% of last season's minutes. Cameron Boozer and his 22.5 points a game are gone, and Isaiah Evans declared for the NBA Draft.

Michigan State is the steadier group. The Spartans bring back 60.4% of their minutes, led by Jeremy Fears Jr., the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year. Fears averaged 15.2 points and 9.3 assists last season. His offensive rating of 131 shows how rarely his possessions went to waste.

Duke's answer is John Blackwell, who scored 19.1 points a game at Wisconsin. He made 38.9% of his threes on heavy volume. How quickly Blackwell, Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer settle into roles is the biggest unknown on the floor. That uncertainty is also why last season's Duke ratings are a weak guide to this game.

Who owns the glass now

Both programs built last season around second shots. Michigan State grabbed 77.6% of opponents' misses, second in the country. Duke ranked sixth in offensive rebound rate, the share of its own misses it pulls back.

That collision would decide plenty if the same players were on the floor. They aren't. Jaxon Kohler, who averaged 8.9 rebounds, is now at BYU, and Carson Cooper is also gone. The center spot is the Spartans' biggest concern entering the season. Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke pulled down 8.3 rebounds a game there, but freshman Jasiah Jervis started over him at Marquette.

Duke returns Patrick Ngongba II, a big who rarely shoots threes. He posted a 62.8% effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times. The Blue Devils also add Belmont's Drew Scharnowski. Ngongba dealt with a foot injury in March, and nothing current has surfaced on it.

Where the shots come from

Duke's defense lived on denial last season. It ranked second nationally at keeping opponents off the free-throw line and held them to 30.6% from three.

That sets up a test for Michigan State, a team that didn't shoot many threes last season but made 36.3% of them. The best returning shooter on the roster, Kur Teng, hit 38.1% from deep. He also had offseason foot surgery, and there has been no current word on his status. If Teng is limited, Michigan State's offense leans even harder on Fears getting into the paint against a defense that rarely fouls.

Ankles and exhibitions

Michigan State lost two of three exhibitions, most recently 86-79 at Marquette on Oct. 25 after a 4-for-18 start. Fears twisted an ankle against UConn on Oct. 20. He then played at Marquette with no visible effects and scored 18. Afterward Izzo said his team has to communicate better on the floor. Forward Cam Ward was out of the starting lineup at Marquette, and Kaleb Glenn has been cleared after a knee injury cost him all of last season.

Duke routed Tennessee 101-64 on Oct. 21 without Foster, who has a small ankle injury. Scheyer said then that Foster had a chance to play against Kansas. Duke hasn't publicly updated his status since, so his availability for this game is unconfirmed.

History and the missing line

Duke has won both meetings in the last three seasons: 74-65 on a neutral floor in 2023 and 66-60 at Michigan State last December. Both games were grinders, and nothing about these styles suggests a track meet. Michigan State ranked 247th and Duke 240th in pace last season.

No spread or total has been posted yet. When one appears, remember how much the gap between these teams depends on Duke's new pieces. Last season's ratings favor the Blue Devils, but Michigan State has far more of its core intact for an early-season night at the United Center.