Memphis vs Vanderbilt prediction: Tyler Tanner anchors Vanderbilt as Memphis debuts a rebuilt roster

Tanner is the constant

Almost nothing about this game resembles the last time these programs met, except one guard. Tyler Tanner averaged 19.5 points last season with an offensive rating of 129.8, a points-per-100-possessions measure that put him among the most efficient high-usage guards in the country. He enters his junior year as an AP preseason All-American, and the Commodores are ranked No. 24.

Around him, Mark Byington has rebuilt. Vanderbilt returns only 25.4% of last season's minutes, with 12 newcomers and 11 underclassmen on a 15-man roster. During exhibitions Byington tried Tanner off the ball, a hint that he wants another creator handling the offense. The likeliest candidate is Ace Glass, who scored 16.4 points per game at Washington State and made 36.4% of his threes. Two guards who can shoot, Tanner at 85.3% and Glass at 88.2% from the line last season, make Vanderbilt hard to guard late.

Memphis starts from zero

Hardaway's roster turnover is close to total. Memphis returns just 11.2% of last season's minutes, and Julius Thedford is the only returner who played a real role, at 20.4 minutes a night. Last season's 13-19 team tells you very little about this one.

The new core came through the portal. Tylik Weeks averaged 19.7 points at Southern Miss with a usage rate of 29.9%, meaning nearly a third of his team's possessions ended with him. Corneilous Williams gives Memphis an interior anchor after posting 9.3 rebounds per game at North Alabama. Jayden Reid ran Northwestern's offense and Brandin Cummings arrives from Pittsburgh.

Shooting is the open question. Luke Almodovar, the Tigers' highest-volume shooter, hit 31.6% on 209 attempts at Southeast Missouri State, and Weeks made just 22.2% of his threes. If those numbers hold, Vanderbilt can pack the paint and dare the guards to shoot.

Two coaches, two speeds

The players changed, but the coaches did not, and their styles last season pointed in opposite directions. Memphis ran at 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 48th fastest in Division I. Vanderbilt played at 65.7, which ranked 283rd. The team that controls tempo sets the terms.

Ball security was the bigger gap. Memphis turned it over on 19.1% of possessions last season, 323rd nationally, while Vanderbilt ranked 33rd. Treat those as tendencies of each program rather than of these rosters. Free throws could matter in a close finish. Vanderbilt made 78.9% from the line last season, fifth in the country, and Glass shot 88.2% at Washington State.

A series with history, a schedule with questions

Memphis has won four of the last five meetings. Vanderbilt took the most recent one 77-70 in overtime at FedExForum. This time the game moves to Memorial Gym in Nashville.

Both teams play an opener before this game. Memphis faces Iowa State after an exhibition loss at Arkansas, and Vanderbilt hosts Bellarmine after exhibition wins over UAB and Virginia. Freshman Gabe Nesmith, who scored nine points against Virginia, will miss the Bellarmine game, and as of Oct. 30 Byington had given no firm return date. Memphis had no reported injuries as of Oct. 31.

The tip time is unsettled. Our listing says 7:15 PM ET, while CBS shows 7:00 on SEC+ and Vanderbilt lists it as TBA. No line has been posted yet.